Brisbane v Carlton AFL preview, betting picks & top odds

Brisbane v Carlton AFL match preview

The opening round of the 2024 AFL Premiership season continues this Friday night as the Brisbane Lions host the Carlton Blues in a repeat of last year’s preliminary final.

After their heartbreaking defeat in the grand final last season, the Lions will be looking to go even further this year as one of the favourites for the premiership. Last season they won every match held at the Gabba, and they will be looking to create a fortress once again in 2024.

With a largely clean bill of health, don’t expect too many changes to last year’s grand final side. Will Ashcroft and new recruit Tom Doedee are both still recovering from knee injuries suffered last season, while Conor McKenna (hamstring) and Deven Robertson (wrist) are the only forced changes from their last match.

As such, James Madden and Kai Lohmann look set to come into the side after impressing during the preseason, with no new names expected.

For the Blues, they start the new season where they finished in 2023. After their first taste of finals in 10 years, expect Carlton to come back stronger in 2024 as they look to recapture the form they showed last year.

However, unlike the Lions, Carlton are missing several key figures due to injury. Vice-captains Jacob Weitering (calf) and Sam Walsh (back) are both unavailable for the first few weeks of the season, while they are also missing small forward trio Corey Durdin, Jack Martin and Matt Owies. New recruit Elijah Hollands will also miss the first two matches due to suspension.

This opens the door for draftee Ashton Moir make his AFL debut, with Orazio Fantasia also set to play his first game for the Blues after joining in the off-season. Zac Williams is also set to return from 18 months out following a knee injury.

Brisbane v Carlton AFL betting predictions

Given the Lions’ faultless record at home last season, the Blues couldn’t have asked for a much harder draw to start 2024. With injuries across the ground, it is hard to see Carlton causing an upset as they look to end an 11-year drought at the Gabba. As the odds are heavily skewed in favour of the Lions, consider the -22.5 handicap at -111.11 with online bookmakers.

With the injury to Weitering, the Carlton defence now looks stretched as they scramble to cover for one of the best in the competition. As a result, Brisbane forward Joe Daniher looks set to take advantage of an easier matchup. The Lions’ leading goalscorer in 2023, Daniher looks primed to get his season off to a flying start with three or more goals at +130 with Bovada.

After a career-best year in 2023, Carlton midfielder Adam Cerra will be hoping to take his game to another level this season. In the absence of Walsh, more responsibility falls onto the former Docker’s shoulders as he spends more time at centre bounces. Averaging 25.5 disposals per game in 2023, back Cerra to continue that form into this year with 25 or more disposals at -111.11 with top AFL betting sites.

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