UFC 273 betting picks & top value plays – Saturday, April 9

Khamzat Chimaev will face his toughest test to date this Saturday night when he faces Gilbert Burns in a welterweight bout at UFC 273. We’ll take an in-depth look at this matchup as well as the other two fights on the main card leading up to the co-main event of Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan and the main event of Alexander Volkanovski vs Jung Chan-sung.

Welterweight: Gilbert Burns (+400) vs Khamzat Chimaev (-600)

Khamzat Chimaev (10-0-0) has run roughshod over his competition through the first 10 fights of his professional career, earning six of his 10 wins by knockout and the other four by submission. He is off to a 4-0 start in the UFC and has earned Performance of the Night honors in all four of those fights, finishing off each of his last three fights over Rhys McKee, Gerald Meerschaert and Li Jingliang in the first round.

Gilbert Burns (20-4-0) bounced back from his knockout loss to Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 with a decision win over Stephen Thompson at UFC 264 in July. Burns is 7-1 over his last eight fights with his most recent wins coming against Thompson, Tyron Woodley and Damian Maia.

Chimaev looks like the real article; he’s an absolute force both standing up and on the ground. He will in all likelihood win this fight. But at these betting odds, we’re actually willing to take a shot on Gilbert Burns. Burns will be Chimaev’s first top-ten ranked opponent and his only loss since July of 2018 came against arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Usman. There’s at least a chance that Burns survives Chimaev’s early onslaught and does enough to grind out an upset.

Women’s Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern (-115) vs Tecia Torres (-105)

Mackenzie Dern (11-2-0) had a four-fight winning streak snapped with a decision loss to Marina Rodriguez last October. Dern was 6-1 in the UFC prior to that loss with four of those wins coming by way of submission. Tecia Torres (10-5-0) was in danger of being cut from the UFC on the heels of four straight losses in 2018 and 2019, but she’s back on track with a three-fight winning streak since then.

Torres is the more polished fighter in this fight and will win if she’s able to avoid trouble on the ground against Dern. That’s easier said than done though as Dern is an elite submission specialist, making up for other holes in her game with her outstanding work on the mat. This one could easily go either way, but Torres’s lack of stopping power giving Dern 15 minutes to work with has us leaning towards the Jiu-Jitsu specialist eventually locking in a fight-ending hold.

Lightweight: Vinc Pichel (-135) vs Mark Madsen (+115)

Vinc Pichel (14-2-0) picked up his third straight win in a victory against Austin Hubbard last August. Pichel is 7-1 through his first eight fights in the UFC with six of those seven wins coming by decision. Mark Madsen (11-0-0) is off to a perfect 11-0 start to his professional MMA career including a 3-0 start in the UFC. His most recent win came via split decision over Clay Guida. This is an intriguing matchup that should be competitive and feels very likely to go the distance. We’ll take the underdog odds on Madsen, who should be able to earn enough points to win if he can take this fight to the mat often enough.

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