UFC Vegas 17 main card betting odds, tips & predictions

UFC Vegas 17 main card preview

Dana White and the UFC have produced one of their best cards of the year in what will be the final event of 2020. Every favorite on the main card is going off at -150 or tighter in an event that will put UFC handicappers to the test. Here are our picks and predictions for the UFC Vegas 17 main card, with odds from BP’s top-rated UFC betting sites.

Bantamweight: Jose Aldo (-143) vs Marlon Vera (+123)

Jose Aldo (28-7-0) has lost three straight fights, most recently getting dominated in a loss to current UFC Bantamweight champion Petr Yan. Aldo is just 2-5 over his last seven fights, but all five of those losses have come against elite talent with two losses to Max Holloway, and one each to Alexander Volkanovski, Marlon Moraes, and the aforementioned Yan.

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Is Marlon Vera (16-6-1) ready to enter the top 10 in the division with a victory over Aldo? Vera is 6-1 over his last seven fights, including an impressive upset win over Sean O’Malley at UFC 252 in August. This fight will be a great litmus test to see just how over-the-hill Aldo is and just how ready for prime-time Vera is. It’s a tough call, but this just feels like a good matchup for Aldo; Vera’s slow starts and reliance on kicks play right into the veteran’s strengths. Look for Aldo to snap his losing streak with a decision win.

Welterweight: Michel Pereira (-134) vs Khaos Williams (+114)

This fight is going to be a blast. Michel Pereira (24-11-0) and Khaos Williams (11-1-0) are both fantastic strikers capable of ending this fight in a single blow. Pereira is 2-2 so far in the UFC, although one of those losses came via disqualification in a fight he was dominating before stupidly throwing an illegal knee. Williams is 2-0 in the UFC with two knockouts coming in 30 seconds or less, and 8-0 in his last eight fights overall. Given that Williams has the reach advantage in this one and is getting underdog odds, it’s hard to pass up on him.

Bantamweight: Marlon Moraes (-145) vs Rob Font (+125)

Marlon Moraes (23-7-1) is 1-2 in his last two fights since going 17-1 (4-1 in the UFC) in his previous 18 fights. Rob Font (17-4-0) has picked up back-to-back wins since going 3-3 over his previous six UFC fights. While Font enters this fight with more momentum, it’s worth noting that Moraes’s two losses came against former champion Henry Cejudo and another extremely strong bantamweight in Cory Sandhagen. Font is a talented fighter in his own right, but Moraes is the more proven of the two and should bust his slump with a win here.

Women’s Flyweight: Gillian Robertson (-110) vs Taila Santos (-110)

On a card of tough fights to predict, this one just might be the toughest, as is indicated by the pick’em odds. Taila Santos (16-1-0) entered the UFC with a 15-0-0 record before losing in her promotional debut to Mara Romero Borella last year. After taking 17 months away from the cage, Santos returned in July with a convincing decision victory over Molly McCann. Gillian Robertson (9-4-0) is a scrapper who, at just 25 years of age, has already compiled a 6-2 record in the UFC, including an ongoing 4-1 run. In a standard-sized octagon, the lean might be Santos to use her reach to keep Robertson at a distance; however, in the small octagon, look for Robertson to use her experience to crowd Santos and grind out a hard-fought win.

Heavyweight: Greg Hardy (-118) vs Marcin Tybura (-102)

Greg Hardy (7-2-0) has undeniable power and is always one clean punch away from ending a bout. But in Marcin Tybura (20-6-0) he runs into a crafty veteran that has won three straight fights and isn’t going to make it easy to find that knockout blow. Hardy is dangerous but still very raw; two of his last three fights have gone to the cards. We’ll take the more experienced fighter in this one.