2019 Super Bowl betting analysis, key form & stats – Patriots vs. Rams
Patriots vs. Rams – 6:30 PM EST, Sunday, February 3 at A Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA
Betting Line: Patriots -2.5
Over/Under: Bovada has the Over/Under in this game posted at 57
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will go to the Super Bowl for the sixth time next Monday, chasing NFL immortality against the LA Rams in the greatest show in American sport.
New England has made the big dance for the third straight season, scoring at least 37 points in each of their two playoffs games.
They needed a little Brady magic in their road win over the Kansas City Chiefs last week and could need some again in the Super Bowl if they are to prevail.
The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven Super Bowl games.
The Rams got a little lucky in the NFC title game with a blown call at the end that would have, likely, given the New Orleans Saints the win.
However, LA came through in OT, even though their run game struggled and they gave up the first 13 points. Jared Goff had a solid NFC title game and the defense came up big, but they need Todd Gurley and the run game in the Super Bowl.
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This season the Pats are 11-7 ATS with an O/U record of 7-11 and the Rams are 9-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 9-9.
These teams have not faced off since the 2016 season.
The Patriots have covered the spread in five of their last six games against the Rams.
The Patriots beat the Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC championship game where the Pats stuffed the run and out-gained Kansas City 524 yards to 290 yards. Brady did have two interceptions, but also had a touchdown, passed for 348 yards, and converted three third-down conversions on the game-winning drive in overtime. Sony Michel rushed for 113 of the Pats 176 rushing yards and he has rushed for over 110 yards in each of the last two playoff games. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski combined for 175 receiving yards and Brady was not sacked once.
The Rams defense has had their issues this season, but they were solid in the NFC title game. They only gave up 48 rushing yards, but can their secondary get it done and can Aaron Donald and the pass rush get to Brady? Big question in THE Big Game.
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In the NFC title game, the Rams were in the Big Easy and beat the New Orleans Saints 26-23 in OT. They had 378 total yards in the game holding Drew Brees and the Saints to only 290 total yards.
Jared Goff had one touchdown and one interception passing for 297 yards with Brandin Cooks (107 receiving yards) being his main target. The Rams’ run game only had 77 rushing yards in the game with Gurley only rushing for 10 yards on four carries and C.J. Anderson only rushing for 44 yards after having at least 123 rushing yards in his previous three games.
The Patriots have played the run well in their two playoff wins and their pass defense has not been bad. They may get a heavy dose of the run in this game and while the Rams only had 77 rushing yards in the last game they rushed for 273 in their first playoff game against the Cowboys.
New England Patriots betting trends
- 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record
- 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games
- 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win
- Under record of 8-3 in their last 11 games
Bet on the NFL Super Bowl at Bovada
LA Rams betting trends
- 4-0 ATS in their last four games
- 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
- Over record of 8-3 in Rams last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
New England Patriots vs. LA Rams ultimate Super Bowl prediction
The Patriots have been pretty predictable on offense in the playoffs — look for them to pound the rock on the ground early.
Like the other two playoffs games New England, will play the run well in this one and will not allow Goff to beat them with his arm.
The game will be a pretty close one, but the Patriots will win and cover, creating more NFL history.
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