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2023 NBA Finals Odds: Can the Warriors repeat?

Warriors at Nuggets NBA Picks - Thursday, 3/10/22

The Golden State Warriors haven’t even held their parade yet for their 2022 NBA Finals win and the odds next year’s championship are already out. It may seem premature to bet on futures when the previous season just finished, but there are some opportunities for good value. Beyond that, it is fun to look at futures and get an idea for how sportsbooks view the upcoming season. Anyways, let’s dig into the 2023 NBA Finals outright odds and see if any teams are worth getting an early wager in on.

Of course, a lot can change over the course of the NBA offseason, but you can still paint a pretty clear picture of what teams will be elite in the upcoming season. This year, the free agent class doesn’t feature a ton of names who will sway the power structure of the NBA, and while the draft class is good, no rookie will immediately lead his team into contention. There are stars like Zion Williamson, James Harden and Donovan Mitchell who have the opportunity to change teams and also the NBA landscape, but this offseason projects to be a relatively boring one. For that reason, we can feel pretty good about what teams will compete for a title next season, meaning we can potentially find some value in NBA futures.

Off the jump, the two teams who just competed for the 2022 NBA Finals are the biggest favorites. The Warriors are +500 to repeat and the Boston Celtics are +650 to win it all, according to Bovada. These lines are not enticing enough to take either team, and while they had a lot of success last season, a lot of things had to break their way in order to compete for the title – especially in terms of injuries. While the Warriors and Celtics both project to be good teams again next season, it’s not worth taking them at their respective numbers.

The next biggest favorites are the Brooklyn Nets at +700 and the Los Angeles Clippers at +750. These two teams are pretty similar and both have superstar players. The Nets have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but there is a lot of buzz about a potential Kyrie trade and the uncertainty of that situation makes them not worth betting on. The same can be said for the Clippers. They have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, and when both of them are healthy, the Clippers have a chance to win the title. However, Kawhi didn’t play at all last season and George dealt with a lot of injuries as well. We cannot count on them to return healthy and the odds are way too low to be worth taking.

Next up are the Milwaukee Bucks, also at +750. After winning the 2021 NBA Finals, the Bucks fell to the Celtics in the 2022 Eastern Conference semifinals. The Bucks, with Giannis Antetokounmpo, gave the Celtics a run for their money and did it without their second-best player, Khris Middleton. It’s not a certainty, but if Middleton was healthy, the Bucks could have been playing for back-to-back NBA championships. Simply put, Giannis is one of the best players in the world and the Bucks should be in contention yet again. With even luck on the injury front, Milwaukee are the best team in the NBA, so at +750 to win next year’s NBA Finals, it’s good value.

After that, there is a group of teams with odds of +1000 to +2000. Those are the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers. All of these teams are good, but not good enough to win a title. Looking into next year, they will either have an aging star or won’t have cap flexibility. Simply put, these teams will have a tough time drastically improving their squads and get over the hump. While there is a chance one of them could take the leap into the elite tier, now is not the time to bet on it.

The only longshot worth betting on at this time is the Toronto Raptors. They are at +6000 and were a pretty good team last year. Toronto were never truly in contention, but they had a young team who will have more experience this time around. Beyond that, Nick Nurse is one of the best coaches in the league and he is capable of making this team a title challenger. Also, the Raptors have some cap space to make a big signing or a big trade to improve their squad. The price on this future right now is very good value and has a chance to pay dividends. It’s not a lock by any means, but this a good number on a young team that can drastically improve. If they fast-track that improvement by making a big trade, their odds will drop, so this might be a good time to buy in on Toronto.

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