Titans @ Packers NFL best bets & TD scorer picks – Nov 17, 2022

After a few uninteresting Thursday Night Football matchups in a row, the NFL has finally scheduled a fascinating tilt where the 4-6 Green Bay Packers will host the 6-3 Tennessee Titans. This will be a real measuring-stick game for the Packers, who broke their five-game losing streak with a huge win last weekend against the Dallas Cowboys. Whether or not the Packers are back remains to be seen, but this game will give NFL fans a good idea of how good both these teams actually are. Here are our free betting picks for the game.

Titans @ Packers spread pick: Tennessee +3

There is optimism for this Packers team due to Aaron Rodgers, and we just aren’t buying it. While they looked better than they had all season last weekend, we think that was a fluke and the Packers are not a true contender. They had lost five straight heading into last weekend’s win, and that is who the Packers are: a bad offense and a defense that cannot stop the run. And that is not a team that can beat the Titans.

The Titans are yet again a playoff team, and while they do not have a flashy offense, they have Derrick Henry — one of the best running backs in the NFL. The Packers have a bottom-five rush defense and will not have any answers for Henry. Henry has rushed for over 100 yards in five of his past six games and he is set up for another big one. In the short week, we are siding with the more physical team, even if the public perception around the Packers appears to be rising.

Titans @ Packers value bet: Derrick Henry 2+ touchdowns

Because we think the Titans will win this game on the back of Derrick Henry, all of his props are in play. He is truly a gamechanger at running back and the Packers will be powerless to stop him. Henry’s anytime touchdown odds are a bit too rich at around -170 with most betting sites, but there is some value on him scoring two or more times at +370. Henry has three games with multiple rushing scores this year and he has proven he is capable of taking over any game. In this tilt, we think that will happen again.

Packers anytime touchdown scorer: Allen Lazard

If the Packers want any chance of winning this game, they will have to pass. The Titans have bottled up everyone on the ground this season and have the second-best rushing defense in the league. They have also only given up two rushing touchdowns this season. This means the Packers receivers’ anytime touchdown odds hold all the value — and Allen Lazard is Aaron Rodgers’ favorite option. Sure, the rookie Christian Watson had three touchdowns last week, but that was likely a fluke. Lazard has five receiving touchdowns this year and we think he will add another one in this spot. Expect the Packers to pass a lot and Lazard to be the main beneficiary of that volume.

Titans anytime touchdown scorer: Treylon Burks

The Titans are not expected to pass the ball a lot, and that is evident in their receivers’ anytime touchdown odds. Treylon Burks has the third-shortest odds to score and no one is below +330 with Bovada. While it’s a longshot, we like Burks to score in this spot. He is a first-round rookie receiver who is an athletic monster, and while he is yet to score this season, he has battled injuries along the way. He finally looked healthy last week and it’s time to see why he was picked in the first round. We expect Burks to be the most involved receiver in a low-volume passing offense, and his anytime touchdown odds of +440 are a great value bet on an uber-talented rookie.

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