UFC Fight Night main card betting preview & best bets | 14/1/23

After a long festive hiatus, UFC Fight Night is back from the Apex Centre in Las Vegas with a card packed with big names and potential stars. All eyes will be on the unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov as he strives to keep his streak alive, Ketlen Vieira appears close to a title shot in the women’s bantamweight division, and we have highlighted Damon Jackson as our best bet on the main card. Tune in to see who can get the new year off to a winning start.

Sean Strickland vs Nasourdin Imavov

Dan Ige vs Damon Jackson

After promising so much in the featherweight division, Dan Ige (-128.21) has endured a rough two years yielding a sole victory and four defeats. All four losses came via the judges’ scorecard, and Ige needs to take control of his destiny. The Hawaiian holds a black belt in BJJ, a brown belt in Judo, and a strong wrestling pedigree, so he should be taking his opponents to the mat and working for submission finishes. With a possible cut from the UFC roster looming, it is time for Ige to show us what he can really do.

In stark contrast, Damon Jackson (+105) has enjoyed a glorious two-year period racking up five wins and a single loss. The defeat was to Ilia Topuria, who looks like a world beater, so there is no shame whatsoever associated to the result. Jackson is a submission specialist who boasts 16 wins via tap out. He is also a hard hitter with a handful of knock out finishes on his record. Unless we are missing some vital piece of information, this appears to be a one-sided contest. However, Damon Jackson is not listed as the favourite, and we are getting a nice price for our strongest tip.

Punahele Soriano vs Roman Kopylov

Punahele Soriano (-166.67) is another Hawaiian on this stacked card. Soriano is an impressive knockout hunter who only loses when the judges get involved. Both his defeats came via decision, but eight of his nine wins were early stoppages. He will need to effectively manage the distance here against a taller and longer opponent. Look for Soriano to bounce or walk through his opponent’s jab and throw heavy leather aimed at securing the knockout. If the jabs are heavy enough to slow his momentum, the Hawaiian might be in for a long night.

Roman Kopylov (+135) hit the UFC with an unbeaten record but has dropped two out his three fights in the big league. His last outing was, however a tidy and confidence-boosting finish against Alessio Di Chirico, and Kopylov reportedly struggled with weight issues in at least one of his UFC losses. The Russian looks a natural athlete with plenty of potential improvement, and we are surprised oddsmakers do not have this fight more evenly matched. He can be a slow starter, so the first will be critical to his chances, but as the fight wears on Kopylov should be able to find his range and pick Soriano apart.

Ketlen Vieira vs Raquel Pennington

Ketlen Vieira (-120.48) is the number two ranked women’s bantamweight looking to press her case for a shot at UFC gold. Her last two scalps were both former champs in Holly Holm and Meisha Tate, which added to Vieira’s title aspirations. The Brazilian’s record is dotted with split decisions, so she will need to deliver a more dynamic outcome if she is to earn a crack at the champion. She appears to have a distinct advantage on the mat over her opponent here and would be wise to slip a Pennington overhand right and take the American down where submissions can come into play.

Raquel Pennington (-102.04) is an MMA veteran who has been fighting in the UFC since 2013. She came up short in her quest for glory when stopped by reigning and dominant champ Amanda Nunes in 2018. Since that loss, Pennington has shared the ring with the best women’s bantamweights including a loss to Holly Holm, a victory over Irene Aldana, and a win over Aspen Ladd. While she is unlikely to have another shot at the belt at this late stage of her career, Pennington still has the skills to trade blows with the division’s top talent. Her boxing driven game plan can be easy to read, but the punches land with enough power to trouble many of her peers.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos

As an unbeaten fighter, Umar Nurmagomedov (-909.09) brings plenty of hype into this bout. The Russian has a single knockout amongst his 15 wins but boasts seven finishes by way of submission. His last outing was a solid decision win over Nate Maness, but the three wins prior were all exciting rear naked choke stoppages. Nurmagomedov is the shortest priced athlete on this main card and is expected to continue his run up the rankings with another early finish. A win will cement what has been a dominant 12 months for the Russians.

Raoni Barcelos (+560) started his UFC career in sparkling fashion, wrapping up his first five bouts without blemish. He then dropped successive fights via close decisions, before rebounding with a win over Trevin Jones at his most recent trip to the cage. Barcelos holds a BJJ black belt and is a former Brazilian and world champion at the discipline. If this fight goes to the ground, we could be in store for some world class grappling exchanges. While bookies give the Brazilian no hope, he does look over-priced. That said, all the money is for Nurmagomedov, and it would take a brave punter to bet the other way.

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