Dawson v Green UFC betting picks & preview – October 7, 2023

UFC Fight Night delivers a classic clash of styles when renowned submission artist Grant Dawson faces slick boxer Bobby Green for a lightweight showdown from UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Dawson is enjoying an extended unbeaten run, while Green needs to lift his output to recapture his winning form.

Dawson v Green UFC main event preview

Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green

Grant Dawson (20-1-1) is undefeated since July 2016 and is currently ranked 10th in the UFC’s lightweight division. The only blemish during this lengthy unbeaten run was a majority draw against Ricky Glenn in October 2021.

The American is a grappler by trade and boasts 13 professional wins via submission. He can also produce stoppage victories by landing heavy ground-and-pound and is much more comfortable on the mat than fighting upright.

Dawson has struggled with his weight during his impressive run, resulting in forfeited earnings and catch-weight bouts. He has never been to five rounds but appears well equipped to handle the extra time inside the cage.

The 29-year-old’s obvious route to victory rests in his ability to take Green down and engage in long and exhausting grappling exchanges. Dawson does not have the boxing talents to match gloves with Green and may look outclassed whenever the men stand and trade. His chin will be tested and must stand up to the looping Green jabs and short straight rights.

Bobby Green (30-14-1) is an enigmatic fighter who can often appear disinterested during his bouts. He has only one victory from his last four contests – over the aging Tony Ferguson, who probably should have quit the sport some time ago. Green is blessed with fast hands and slick movement but does not possess a well-rounded game, as he lacks kick options and grappling prowess.

The 37-year-old has shared the cage with some of the UFC’s biggest names, including Islam Makhachev, Rafael Fiziev, and Drew Dober, with all three matchups going against the Californian. The prospect of retirement must be on Green’s mind, and a run at the lightweight title appears beyond him at this stage.

Grant Dawson v Bobby Green betting predictions

This contest appears a classic clash of styles and will be decided by where the action takes place. If Green can remain on his feet, he should be able to pick Dawson apart with relentless and annoying jabs. This advantage will disappear if Dawson can close the distance and set up body locks and single legs that present takedown opportunities. We are tipping, with some confidence, the younger and fresher Dawson to prevail via submission.

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