O’Malley vs Vera fight preview & free betting picks | UFC 299

The UFC 299 main event at the Kaseya Center in Miami is a rematch between bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and the only man to beat him in the octagon, Marlon Vera. The champ has transcended his eccentric characteristics and must now be respected as a legitimate force at 135 pounds. The contest appears a fascinating contrast between the precision stand-up game of O’Malley and the unorthodox grappling of Vera. Read on to see how we expect this bout to unfold.

Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera fight analysis

Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera

Sean O’Malley (17-1-0) claimed the bantamweight belt in spectacular fashion in August 2023, and this contest will be his first title defence. He slid just inches out of range to avoid an Aljamain Sterling punch before rocking back toward the champ and unleashing a blow of perfect precision. Sterling dropped to the canvas, and a stream of hammer fists completed the victory.

O’Malley is still improving and has been consistently underestimated throughout his career due to his clownish pink hair and other affectations. This rematch offers the opportunity to rectify the sole loss on his record — a first-round KO back in 2020 when the American’s overconfidence may have cost him. The champion has demonstrated toughness in his win over Petr Yan, patience in a win over Kris Moutinho, and explosive power throughout his career.

Marlon Vera (21-8-1) has won five of his last six UFC contests and is worthy of a shot at the title. The 31-year-old’s career record contains eight losses, but it must be noted that they all came via the scorecard. The Ecuadorian can appear lazy for long periods during his fights before producing a knockout or submission from nowhere — as was the case when he knocked out former champion Dominic Cruz.

Vera has a black belt in BJJ and boasts 10 career wins via tap-out. If he can take O’Malley to the mat, the challenger will enjoy a significant grappling advantage. If that fails, Vera can expect to be pieced up with long jabs until the champ can uncork one of his snappy right hands. If the knockout punch does not materialise, it is hard to imagine that Vera can produce the volume required to sway the judges, so his best path lies through his BJJ skills or an unorthodox combination that lands cleanly.

Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera betting strategy

Confidence and motivation will not be an issue for either of these fighters given their good recent form and the stakes on offer. O’Malley will be keen to correct the only blemish on his record, while Vera has finally scored a chance to earn UFC silverware and the riches it generates.

Given Vera’s durability and poor record with the judges, we are leaning toward O’Malley via decision. He may land a knockout blow on a tiring Vera, but the decision outcome appears more likely, paying +125 with the top UFC betting sites.

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