Ribas vs Dern: UFC betting odds & predictions | Saturday, 1/11/25

UFC Fight Night kicks off the new year with an electrifying women’s strawweight clash between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas this Saturday at the Apex in Las Vegas.

The pair previously squared off in 2019, with Ribas dominating via unanimous decision.

The Brazilian enters this bout as the betting favorite, and we’ve got a full fight preview and predictions for this highly anticipated matchup.

Dern v Ribas UFC Fight Night main event preview

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) enters this bout after an inconsistent run, with three wins and four losses since 2021. Dern recently rebounded with a decision win over Loopy Godinez, but her previous defeats to Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade revealed vulnerabilities. Despite her efforts to refine her striking, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist heavily relies on her ground game. Dern has never won via knockout in the UFC, which limits her finishing options. As the betting underdog, she will need to capitalize on any grappling exchanges to overcome the odds provided by the top sportsbooks.

Amanda Ribas (13-5-0) shares the same recent record as Dern but comes in as the more versatile and dangerous fighter. The Brazilian has shown her striking prowess with four career knockouts and has displayed her grappling skills as a BJJ black belt. Ribas’s recent loss to Rose Namajunas was razor-thin, but her knockout victory over Luana Pinheiro showcased her ability to finish fights. With a slight reach advantage and more refined stand-up game, Ribas is the justified Bovada favorite to repeat her 2019 triumph over Dern.

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Dern v Ribas UFC Fight Night predictions

When these two met in 2019, Ribas dictated the pace and outpointed Dern with superior striking and takedown defense. Given their trajectories, it’s unlikely much has changed. Ribas’s technical striking and ability to stuff takedowns should allow her to control the fight. Dern might create moments of danger in grappling exchanges, but Ribas has the tools to neutralize her attacks and score points.

We predict Ribas will outstrike Dern over five rounds, secure a few takedowns of her own, and claim a decision victory paying +250 with the top online casinos. However, don’t rule out the potential for Ribas to find a finish if she lands cleanly during exchanges.

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