State of Origin 2025: Game 1 betting picks & predictions

Maroons v Blues best bets – Origin I

Origin Game 1 preview: Queensland v New South Wales

The 2025 State of Origin opener sees the NSW Blues head into enemy territory as narrow favorites against a rebuilding yet dangerous Queensland outfit at Suncorp Stadium.

NSW coach Laurie Daley has stuck largely with the squad that delivered the shield last year, and the return of Nathan Cleary and Latrell Mitchell adds firepower to a well-balanced lineup. With Mitch Moses shifting to five-eighth and Dylan Edwards cemented at fullback, the Blues are looking for consistency over flair.

Billy Slater’s Queenslanders won’t go quietly, especially in front of a rabid Brisbane crowd. Kalyn Ponga is back at fullback, Cameron Munster returns at five-eighth, and exciting center Robert Toia will debut. The Maroons thrive as rugby league betting underdogs — especially at Suncorp, where they’ve won seven of the last 10.

This is shaping as a grinding battle — a true Origin contest — with the Blues looking to extend their ascendancy and the Maroons fighting to restore their aura.

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State of Origin team lists – Game 1, 2025

Queensland Maroons

1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Xavier Coates
3. Robert Toia
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Valentine Holmes
6. Cameron Munster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Moeaki Fotuaika
9. Harry Grant
10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
11. Reuben Cotter
12. Jeremiah Nanai
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Tom Dearden
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Beau Fermor
17. Trent Loiero

Veteran winger Murray Taulagi is out, while Origin debutants Toia, Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero inject fresh blood. Pat Carrigan and Munster have been cleared to play.

New South Wales Blues

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Brian To’o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Latrell Mitchell
5. Zac Lomax
6. Mitchell Moses
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Mitchell Barnett
9. Reece Robson
10. Payne Haas
11. Liam Martin
12. Angus Crichton
13. Isaah Yeo
14. Connor Watson
15. Spencer Leniu
16. Hudson Young
17. Max King

Star prop Haas is under an injury cloud but expected to play. Mitchell returns in the centres, while Moses starts at five-eighth.

Origin Game 1 betting predictions – QLD v NSW

New South Wales may be slight favorites, but they’ve struggled historically at Suncorp, and the Maroons have a reputation for ambushing the Blues when expectations are low. Still, the stability in the NSW squad gives them a slight edge, and they should cover the small line of -2.5 at -111.11 odds with Nags.bet.

Latrell Mitchell is a big-game Origin player for the Blues. He’s scored seven tries in eight Origin appearances and faces a debutant center on Wednesday. At +155, he’s great value to find the line at Stake.com.

Origin openers are traditionally low-scoring, with 10 of the last 14 going under the total. With pressure and conservative play expected early, under 39.5 points is another smart bet at -111.11 with Stake.com.

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