2025 XPEL Grand Prix at Road America post-qualifying preview & best bets

IndyCar XPEL Grand Prix at Road America Preview

The NTT IndyCar Series reaches its halfway point on Sunday with the 2025 XPEL Grand Prix at Road America — a 55-lap duel at one of the most iconic road courses in North America. The 4.048-mile, 14-turn Elkhart Lake circuit has long been a favorite of fans and drivers, offering elevation, high-speed corners, and overtaking zones unlike any other track on the calendar.

This year’s race takes on added intrigue as rookie Louis Foster delivered a stunning qualifying lap to claim his first career pole. The reigning Indy NXT champion drove the No.45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Honda to a 1:44.5141 on lightly used alternate tires, outpacing five-time race winner Alex Palou, who starts second and is currently the +100 favorite with the top online sportsbooks.

Foster becomes the second rookie to start from pole in 2025, joining Robert Shwartzman (Indy 500), and gives RLL a major morale boost after a bruising stretch of results. Teammate Graham Rahal also reached the Firestone Fast Six and starts sixth.

Championship leader Palou, winless since the Indy 500, now sits on the front row with a chance to break a two-race skid. Directly behind him is the red-hot Kyle Kirkwood, chasing a third straight victory after wins at Detroit and Gateway. Scott McLaughlin and Christian Lundgaard round out a stacked second row, while Team Penske’s 2024 Road America winner Will Power starts 8th.

With high heat, tire strategy, and the new hybrid system all in play, this could be one of the most unpredictable races of the season.

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  Your Winz

XPEL Grand Prix at Road America betting odds

• Alex Palou – -105.26
• Kyle Kirkwood – +325
• Louis Foster – +700
• Scott McLaughlin – +700
• Christian Lundgaard – +1000
• Josef Newgarden – +1200
• Will Power – +1400
• Pato O’Ward – +1800
• David Malukas – +2000
• Colton Herta – +2500
• Graham Rahal – +3000
• Felix Rosenqvist – +3000
• Scott Dixon – +3500
• Marcus Ericsson – +7000
• Marcus Armstrong – +7000
• Santino Ferrucci – +7000
• Callum Ilott – +8000
• Nolan Siegel – +10000
• Alexander Rossi – +10000
• Rinus Veekay – +10000
• Christian Rasmussen – +12000
• Devlin Defrancesco – +12500
• Conor Daly – +15000
• Kyffin Simpson – +20000
• Robert Shwartzman – +25000
• Jacob Abel – +35000
• Sting Ray Robb – +50000

More odds available at Stake.com.

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XPEL Grand Prix at Road America betting predictions

Kyle Kirkwood to win

Kirkwood rolls off third and has been the only driver capable of consistently beating Palou this season. He’s won on street and oval tracks — and now with a clean inside-row start and momentum, he’s primed for a road course breakthrough. His ability to preserve the alternate tire under heat will be key. At +320 with Stake.com, this is great value for the hottest driver in the paddock.

Louis Foster podium finish

Foster may be a rookie, but his qualifying performance was no fluke. The RLL Honda was fast on both new and used red tires, and Foster was calm, composed, and calculated. With clean air to start and momentum from his Indy NXT title, a podium at Road America isn’t just possible — it’s in play. Take the +260 podium odds at Stake.com before they tighten.

Marcus Armstrong top-six finish

Starting 15th doesn’t faze Armstrong, who thrives in high-deg, strategy-heavy road races. The Kiwi has been quietly consistent all season and drives for Ganassi — a team that knows how to gain positions through clean pit cycles. With Palou and Dixon leading the development, Armstrong could easily sneak into the top six.

XPEL Grand Prix at Road America – Starting Grid