Get free 2025 John Deere Classic predictions, betting odds, weather update, and top PGA Tour picks for TPC Deere Run in Illinois.
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PGA John Deere Classic betting preview & top picks
The PGA Tour hits the Midwest this week for the 2025 John Deere Classic, bringing its annual birdie-fest to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.
With The Open Championship looming, many big names have opted for rest, leaving the door open for rising stars and seasoned pros to cash in on one of the Tour’s softest setups. Expect a relentless low-scoring affair; the winning score has cracked 20-under in 13 of the past 15 editions, including Davis Thompson’s record-setting 28-under triumph here last year.
Ben Griffin leads the betting board at +1600 with online sportsbooks after stringing together six consecutive top-15s, including wins at the Zurich Classic and Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s joined by Jason Day, Denny McCarthy, and J.T. Poston among the top contenders. Meanwhile, a deep pool of mid-tier threats — like Chris Kirk, Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, and Kevin Yu — makes this a wide-open shootout.
Conditions should be pure for scoring early in the week, with classic Midwest heat and only moderate breezes. But a weather system could roll in for the weekend, possibly bringing rain and gustier winds, adding a wrinkle for Sunday’s contenders. This is one of the easiest ball-striking tests on the PGA Tour — approach and putting rule the day — and we could see yet another breakthrough winner at Deere Run.
Keep reading for our top golf betting picks for the 2025 John Deere Classic
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Course snapshot: TPC Deere Run
- Par/Yardage: Par 71, 7,289 yards
- Designer: D.A. Weibring — rolling parkland layout
- Key Features: Generous fairways, smaller undulating greens, gettable par-fives
- Greens: Bentgrass, avg. ~5,500 sq ft, subtle contours
- Winning Score Trend: Typically -20 or better; record -28
- Setup Style: Birdie-fest demanding sharp wedges and hot putting
2025 John Deere Classic betting odds
- Ben Griffin – +1600
- Denny McCarthy – +2500
- Jason Day – +2500
- Davis Thompson – +2800
- J.T. Poston – +3000
- Michael Thorbjornsen – +3000
- Chris Gotterup – +3300
- Chris Kirk – +3300
- Jake Knapp – +3300
- Si Woo Kim – +3300
- Sungjae Im – +3300
- Aldrich Potgieter – +4000
- Alex Smalley – +4000
- Bud Cauley – +4000
- Kevin Yu – +4000
- Lucas Glover – +4000
- Luke Clanton – +4000
- Pierceson Coody – +4000
- Ryan Gerard – +4000
- Sam Stevens – +4000
- Andrew Putnam – +5000
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout – +5000
- Keith Mitchell – +5000
- Kurt Kitayama – +5000
- Mark Hubbard – +5000
- Michael Kim – +5000
- Nico Echavarria – +5000
- Rickie Fowler – +5000
- Thorbjorn Olesen – +5000
- Doug Ghim – +6600
- Emiliano Grillo – +6600
- Kevin Roy – +6600
- Lee Hodges – +6600
- Rico Hoey – +6600
- Stephan Jaeger – +6600
- Taylor Moore – +6600
- Thriston Lawrence – +6600
- Tom Kim – +6600
- Victor Perez – +6600
- Cameron Champ – +6600
- Eric Cole – +8000
- Jacob Bridgeman – +8000
- Jesper Svensson – +8000
- Matt McCarty – +8000
- Patrick Rodgers – +8000
- Ryo Hisatsune – +8000
- Sami Valimaki – +8000
- Vince Whaley – +8000
More odds available at Stake.com
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PGA John Deere Classic betting predictions
Chris Kirk to win
This could be the perfect rebound spot for Chris Kirk, who came agonizingly close last week in Detroit. TPC Deere Run rewards clean ball-striking and precise wedge play — two of Kirk’s strengths. He’s produced multiple top-25s here and arrives off a runner-up and T12 in his last two starts. His putting finally flashed signs of life at the Rocket Classic, and in a field lacking elite closers, Kirk looks primed to break through at +1600 with Stake.com.
Chris Kirk to win
Michael Thorbjornsen top-five finish
With finishes of T17 and T2 in his two appearances at TPC Deere Run, Michael Thorbjornsen has quickly become a course horse here. Fresh off a T4 last week, he’s shaking off past injury concerns and showcasing elite short-game metrics. His approach play can still be streaky, but this layout suits his driver-wedge combo perfectly. He’s a stylish pick to crack the top five at +650 with Stake.com.
Michael Thorbjornsen top-five finish
Kevin Yu top-10 finish
A high-upside ball-striker, Kevin Yu is trending nicely into the John Deere. He finished T6 on debut here in 2023 and T20 last year and comes off solid form, including two top-fives in his last five starts. Yu ranks among the leaders in strokes gained tee-to-green, and if the putter cooperates, he’s built to thrive in a shootout like this. Grab him at +350 for a top 10 with Stake.com.
Kevin Yu top-10 finish
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