State of Origin Game 3 betting preview & picks | NSW v QLD

State of Origin Game 3 match preview

The 2025 State of Origin series has reached its high-stakes finale, with the decider set for Accor Stadium in Sydney as New South Wales and Queensland battle it out with the series locked at one win apiece.

The Blues enter as firm -250 favorites with the top rugby league betting sites as they aim to claim consecutive series titles for the first time since their 2018-19 triumph. Meanwhile, Queensland — sitting as the +200 outsiders — are chasing yet another famous Game 3 upset, something they’ve pulled off in 11 of the last 15 deciders.

New South Wales produced a clinical 18-6 victory in Game 1 in Brisbane but squandered a golden chance to close out the series in Perth, falling 26-24 after a disastrous first half. Despite trailing 26-6 at halftime, Laurie Daley’s side launched a spirited comeback, scoring five tries to four, with Brian To’o crossing for a remarkable hat-trick. However, Zac Lomax’s struggles with the boot — landing only two from five conversion attempts — ultimately proved costly in the narrow defeat.

For the Maroons, Game 2 man of the match Cameron Munster remains a key figure, but he’s dealing with a deeply personal blow after the passing of his father last week. Munster left the Maroons camp to be with family and isn’t expected to rejoin the squad until the captain’s run on Wednesday.

It’s a significant emotional weight for Queensland’s skipper, who was outstanding in Perth, scoring a try and guiding his side home under immense pressure. The Maroons will be counting on his resilience and brilliance if they’re to pull off another upset in Sydney.

Heading into Game 3, the key question is whether NSW can tidy up their discipline and finishing under pressure, while Queensland will look to replicate the blistering opening half that stunned the Blues in Perth.

Recommended!

World's Largest!

Exclusive VIP program!

Join Stake

Full terms.

Your Winz

100% Bonus Match on First Deposit

Join 888starz now!

Register on the 888starz website and get a 100% bonus worth up to 164 AUD (or the equivalent amount in another currency) for your first deposit!

State of Origin Game 3 team lists

New South Wales Blues

• Dylan Edwards
• Brian To’o
• Stephen Crichton
• Latrell Mitchell
• Zac Lomax
• Jarome Luai
• Nathan Cleary
• Max King
• Reece Robson
• Payne Haas
• Liam Martin
• Angus Crichton
• Isaah Yeo (c)
• Connor Watson
• Spencer Leniu
• Hudson Young
• Stefano Utoikamanu

NSW have shown faith in the same starting 17 from Game 2, despite several injury concerns. Nathan Cleary has been managing a groin issue, Jarome Luai has overcome an infection scare, and Brian To’o is nursing a minor knee injury. Nevertheless, all key players are expected to take the field in the decider.

Queensland Maroons

• Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
• Xavier Coates
• Robert Toia
• Gehamat Shibasaki
• Valentine Holmes
• Cameron Munster (c)
• Tom Dearden
• Josh Papalii
• Harry Grant
• Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
• Reuben Cotter
• Kurt Capewell
• Trent Loiero
• Kurt Mann
• Lindsay Collins
• Patrick Carrigan
• Jeremiah Nanai

Billy Slater has again shuffled the Maroons lineup, moving Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to fullback after Kalyn Ponga’s injury, while Gehamat Shibasaki is set for his Origin debut in the centres. In the forward pack, veteran Josh Papalii has answered an SOS call to come out of retirement and replace Moe Fotuaika, adding some much-needed experience in the middle.

Recommended!

World's Largest!

Exclusive VIP program!

Join Stake

Full terms.

Your Winz

100% Bonus Match on First Deposit

Join 888starz now!

Register on the 888starz website and get a 100% bonus worth up to 164 AUD (or the equivalent amount in another currency) for your first deposit!

State of Origin Game 3 betting predictions

New South Wales -8.5

New South Wales have clearly been the superior team across large stretches of this series and look poised to deliver in front of a sold-out Sydney crowd. The Blues will be laser-focused on avoiding another disastrous start like Game 2 and should come out with plenty of energy and aggression. Queensland’s backline shuffle could open up vulnerabilities, especially against Cleary’s precise bombs and swift edge shifts. If the Blues fix their goal-kicking woes and stay disciplined, they’re a strong chance to cover the line comfortably at -105.26 with Stake.com.

Zac Lomax first tryscorer

Zac Lomax has emerged as a constant danger on the Blues’ right edge, already bagging two tries in Game 1 and proving a handful under the high ball. With Queensland forced into more changes out wide, Lomax is perfectly placed to capitalise on any defensive lapses early in the contest. His aerial strength and finishing instincts make him an ideal candidate to score first, particularly if NSW apply pressure from the opening whistle. At +650 with Stake.com, he’s fantastic value in what could be a cagey start to a tense decider.

Nathan Cleary man of the match

Despite nursing a groin issue, Nathan Cleary remains the general steering this Blues side around the park and will be heavily involved in every key moment. His kicking game, both for territory and attacking plays, remains unmatched, and he’s likely to test Queensland’s reshuffled backline with his bombs and short kicks. If New South Wales dominate field position and possession — as they did in Game 1 — it will be Cleary pulling the strings and dictating the tempo. In a decider where leadership and composure are critical, he’s a prime candidate for man-of-the-match honours at +400 with 888starz.

Recommended!

World's Largest!

Exclusive VIP program!

Join Stake

Full terms.

Your Winz

100% Bonus Match on First Deposit

Join 888starz now!

Register on the 888starz website and get a 100% bonus worth up to 164 AUD (or the equivalent amount in another currency) for your first deposit!