Formula 1 race-day picks for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix

Qualifying has wrapped up at the 2026 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix, and Kimi Antonelli will start from pole position after delivering the lap that matters most around Monte Carlo.

Monaco is the one weekend where Saturday can feel bigger than Sunday, and Antonelli has now put himself in the box seat for the race. Track position is king here, overtaking is extremely difficult, and a clean launch from pole can quickly turn into full control of the Grand Prix.

But this is still Monaco, and nothing ever feels completely safe between the barriers. Max Verstappen starts from P2 and will be close enough to pressure Antonelli into Turn 1, while Lewis Hamilton lines up third for Ferrari and has a genuine shot if the front two get tangled in strategy, traffic or safety-car timing.

Charles Leclerc remains in the top-four mix, but the market has moved heavily towards Antonelli after pole. Further back, George Russell is now much longer in the win market, and that creates a different kind of betting angle on a circuit where frustration, walls and limited passing chances can quickly turn a difficult afternoon into a retirement.

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2026 Monaco Grand Prix odds

Antonelli is now the clear favourite at -227.27 after taking pole, which is exactly what you would expect at Monaco. Verstappen is next at +240 from P2, while Hamilton is still a live threat from third at +575.

Leclerc is out to +1200, and Russell has drifted to +3300, showing just how punishing a compromised qualifying result can be on this circuit. The McLaren pair are much bigger prices, with Norris and Piastri both needing a chaotic race to get properly involved from where they sit in the market.

• Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) – -227.27
• Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – +240
• Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) – +575
• Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – +1200
• George Russell (Mercedes) – +3300
• Isack Hadjar (Red Bull) – +6600
• Lando Norris (McLaren) – +10000
• Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – +10000
• Pierre Gasly (Alpine) – +40000
• Liam Lawson (VCARB) – +50000

More odds available at BetOnline

Monaco Grand Prix 2026 betting predictions

Antonelli has done the hardest part by taking pole, but the price is now short enough that the better betting value sits around him rather than on him. Monaco can be controlled from the front, yet the run to Sainte Devote, pit timing, traffic and safety cars all give Verstappen and Hamilton enough of a window to make things uncomfortable.

The other angle is Russell’s race from outside the main fight. Monaco is a frustrating place to be stuck in traffic, and when drivers are forced into risky moves or alternative strategies, the DNF market becomes much more interesting than it would be at a normal circuit.

George Russell DNF

Russell to record a DNF at +750 is the chaos play. He has the pace to be higher up the order, but Monaco is not a track where drivers can simply recover by overtaking. If he gets caught behind slower cars, Mercedes may need to take a risk with strategy, and Russell may need to push harder than ideal between the walls.

That is where this price becomes appealing. Monaco punishes impatience, and even a small touch can break suspension, damage a wing, or end a race on the spot. At +750, Russell’s DNF price looks worth a small play in a race where one mistake can undo the entire weekend.

Max Verstappen to win

Verstappen to win at +240 is the main value against the pole-sitter. Starting P2 at Monaco is never ideal, but it is close enough to apply pressure immediately, and Verstappen is exactly the kind of driver who can force the leader to be perfect from lap one.

The start will be massive. If Verstappen gets alongside Antonelli into Turn 1 or keeps him under pressure early, Red Bull can start asking strategy questions. Monaco races can look locked up until one safety car, slow stop or traffic call changes everything, and Verstappen is the driver most likely to punish Antonelli if the Mercedes rookie gives him even half a chance.

Lewis Hamilton to win

Hamilton to win at +575 is the bigger-price front-running play. Starting third keeps him close enough to the action, and Ferrari should have enough pace to stay involved if the top two spend the first stint looking at each other rather than managing the race.

Hamilton does not need a wild race to have a chance, but he does need one thing to fall his way. That could be a better launch, a well-timed safety car, a pit-lane swing, or Antonelli and Verstappen getting locked into their own battle. Around Monaco, track position can flip quickly through strategy, and Hamilton has the experience to cash in if Ferrari gets the call right.

Monaco Grand Prix 2026 starting order

Antonelli starts from pole, but Verstappen and Hamilton are close enough to make the opening lap and first pit window crucial. With Monaco offering so few clean overtaking chances, the top three will almost certainly dictate the shape of the race.

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