Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs betting picks – NFL Playoffs

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs NFL betting & game details

• Houston Texans (11-6/8-8-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4/10-5-1 ATS)
• NFL betting lines: Chiefs -10 | O/U 51
• NFL moneyline odds: Texans +325 at Bovada | Chiefs -450 at Bovada
• When: Sunday, January 12 at 2:05pm CT
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
• Watch live: CBS (US), Sky Sports (UK), 7mate (AU)

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL betting preview

The Houston Texans narrowly beat the Buffalo Bills in overtime at home in the NFL Wild Card round and now hit the road as 10-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had a bye last week.

The Chiefs ended the season well, winning their last six games. While the team is known for Patrick Mahomes and a dynamic offense, in their last half a dozen outings they only gave up an average of 11.5 points per game. Mahomes leads an offense that ranks fifth in the league in both passing yards per game and points per game.

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The Chiefs lost at home to the Texans earlier in the season when they gave up 472 yards, including 192 rushing yards.

This season the Chiefs are 5-3 at home and the Texans are 5-3 on the road. The road team has covered the spread in six of the last seven games between these two.

In hosting a Wild Card game last week, the Texans beat the Bills 22-19 in overtime. Houston had a solid fourth quarter outscoring Buffalo 11-3, but they were outgained 425 yards to 360 and gave up 172 rushing yards. That is a big concern when the Bills ranked 24th in the league this season on overall offense, averaging 330.2 yards per game.

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Deshawn Watson passed for 247 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against Buffalo, although he was sacked seven times. DeAndre Hopkins, who ranked 11th in the NFL in receiving yards this season, was his main target with 90 yards. Watson also led the team with 55 rushing yards at 3.9 yards per carry, while Carlos Hyde had 48 yards and only averaged 3.0 yards per carry.

Hyde rushed for 1,070 yards on the season to lead the Texans and rushed for 116 of the 192 yards they racked up in their win over the Chiefs earlier this season. It looks like Houston will need to establish the run in this game to have any chance at the upset. Hyde will be facing the weakness of the Kansas City defense, which is a run unit that ranks 26th in the league while their pass defense ranks eighth.

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Mahomes passed for over 4,000 yards this season with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions even though he missed two games with an injury. He has a slew of weapons at his disposal with five players that have at last 449 receiving yards, led by tight end Travis Kelse (1,229 yards, five TD) and receiver Tyreek Hill (860 yards, seven TD).

The run game for the Chiefs only ranks 23rd in the league in rushing yards per game. Damian Williams led the team with 498 rushing yards, and he rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns in the season-ending win over the LA Chargers. He only had one carry for six yards out of a total of 53 when the Chiefs lost to the Texans earlier this season.

Houston’s defense only ranks 29th in the league against the pass and 25th against the run. Their defense got J.J. Watt back last week and the pass rush will be vital for the Texans, as they cannot give Mahomes time in the pocket or he will likely torch their secondary.

Houston Texans betting trends

• Texans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games
• Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a win
• Texans have an Under record of 4-0 in their last four road games

Kansas City Chiefs betting trends

• Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games
• Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games
• Chiefs have an Under record of 5-1 in their last six games

Texans vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs betting predictions

Kansas City Chiefs -10 at -111.11 with Bovada

The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six home playoff games, but that trend will not continue this week. Kansas City will avenge their home loss to the Texans by beating them badly in this game. Mahomes will be huge and the Chiefs will light up the scoreboard. On the other side of the coin, the Texans will not score many points on a Kansas City defense that played much better in the second half of the season. The Chiefs will cover the spread and advance to the AFC title game for the second straight season.