UFC Vegas 21: Edwards vs Muhammad prelims betting tips

UFC Vegas 21: Edwards vs Muhammad Latest Odds & Fight Info
Main Event odds	Edwards -268 at Bovada | Muhammad +228 at Bovada
When	Saturday, March 13 – prelims from 2pm PST
Where	UFC APEX – Las Vegas, Nevada
Watch Live	ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass, UFC.com

UFC Vegas 21 prelims preview

The UFC Vegas 21 main event sees Leon Edwards make his long-awaited return to the octagon against a formidable opponent in Belal Muhammed, who seized the opportunity after Khamzat Chimaev was forced to dropped out. The prelim card features seven total fights in six different weight classes. Fight fans, don’t sleep on this one. Here are our best bets for the UFC Vegas 21 prelim fights.

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Welterweight: Matthew Semelsberger (-120) vs Jason Witt (+100)

A pair of 170 pounders look to continue their winning ways as Matthew Semelsberger (7-2-0, 1-0 UFC) takes on Jason “The Vanilla Gorilla” Witt (18-6-0, 1-1 UFC). Semelsberger’s most recent win came against Carlton Minus via unanimous decision in his August 2020 UFC debut, while Witt’s last bout ended in a submission victory over Cole Williams in October of 2020. Both men have minimal UFC octagon experience, with a combined three fights between them. Semelsberger is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 1-1 by submission, and 2-0 by decision in his career, whereas Witt is 3-4 by KO/TKO, 8-2 by submission, and 7-0 by decision. Semelsberger seems to be the better fighter on the feet, but Witt has the advantage and experience on the ground. Styles make fights, and this should be a good one. We like Witt to take this opportunity and get his second win in a row.

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Women’s Strawweight: Gloria de Paula (-175) vs Jinh Yu Frey (+150)

Our second prelim fight features two women’s strawweight competitors in Gloria de Paula (5-2-0, 0-0 UFC) and Jinh Yu Frey (9-6-0, 0-2 UFC). The over/under on rounds is at 2.5, with the over well favored at -400 with UFC bookmakers. De Paula is on a two-fight streak, with her last win being by unanimous decision over Pauline Macias at Dana White’s Contender Series in November of 2020. Yu Frey is on the other side of the table, being on a two-fight skid and yet to notch a win in the UFC. Her last fight was an October 2020 unanimous decision loss to Loma Lookboonmee. De Paula is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 0-0 by submission, and 2-2 by decision in her career, while Yu Frey is 1-2 by KO/TKO, 2-1 by submission, and 6-3 by decision. We believe this fight will go the distance, with de Paula winning in her UFC debut.

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Women’s Flyweight: Courtney Casey (+136) vs JJ Aldrich (-156)

Our third prelim fight is a women’s flyweight bout between Courtney Casey (9-8-0, 5-7 UFC) and JJ Aldrich (8-4-0, 4-3 UFC). The over/under on rounds is at 2.5, with the over backed in to -450. Both fighters are looking to get back in the win column and start their 2021 off well. Casey is coming off of a June 2020 submission loss to Gillian Robertson, while Aldrich’s last fight was a January 2020 split decision loss to Sabina Mazo. Casey is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 4-2 by submission, and 2-6 by decision in her career, whereas Aldrich is 2-1 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 6-2 by decision. We like Aldrich to win by points, as that is the only way she has won in the UFC to date.

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Lightweight: Nasrat Haqparast (-375) vs Rafa Garcia (+300)

In the fourth fight of the evening, we have Nasrat Haqparast (12-3-0, 4-2 UFC) taking on UFC debutant Rafa Garcia (12-0-0, 0-0 UFC). Garcia took the fight short notice after Haqparast’s original opponent, Don Madge, withdrew from the contest. Garcia is undefeated as a professional having fought mainly under the Combat Americas promotion, with his last fight being an August 2020 unanimous decision victory over Humberto Bandenay. Haqparast recently ended a one-fight skid by defeating Alex Munhoz via unanimous decision August of 2020. Garcia is 1-0 by KO/TKO, 7-0 by submission, and 4-0 by decision in his professional career, while Haqparast is 9-1 by KO/TKO, 0-1 by submission, and 3-1 by decision. While we are leaning towards Haqparast, under 2.5 rounds looks the safe bet.

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Bantamweight: Rani Yahya (-305) vs Ray Rodriguez (+255)

Our fifth prelim fight features two bantamweights in Rani Yahya (26-10-1, 11-4-1 UFC) and Ray Rodriguez (16-7-0, 0-1 UFC). Yahya is coming off a March 2020 draw against Enrique Barzola, while Rodriguez’s last outing was a September 2020 submission loss to Brian Kelleher. Yahya is 0-2 by KO/TKO, 20-1 by submission, and 6-7-1 by decision in his career, while Rodriguez is 3-1 by KO/TKO, 8-3 by submission, and 5-3 by submission. We like that Yahya has more experience in the octagon, especially on the ground. Take him by submission for some solid odds.

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Featherweight: Charles Jourdain (-255) vs Marcelo Rojo (+215)

The sixth fight of the prelim card features two hopeful featherweights in Charles Jourdain (10-3-1, 1-2-1 UFC) and Marcelo Rojo (16-7-0, 0-0 UFC). Rojo is making his UFC debut, taking the chance at short notice. He enters this contest after winning his last fight by KO over Victor Hugo Madrigal in August of 2019 under the Combat Americas promotion, while Jourdain comes off an October 2020 draw against Josh Culibao. Jourdain is 7-0 by KO/TKO, 3-0 by submission, and 0-3-1 by decision in his career, while Rojo is 8-0 by KO/TKO, 6-4 by submission, and 2-3 by decision. From the options on offer at BetMGM, we like Rojo winning inside the distance but no bet if the fight goes all the way. This means that if Rojo wins the fight inside the distance, you win money, but if the fight goes the distance in either fighter’s favor, your bet is refunded. This is a great fight to use this type of bet to your advantage, in our opinion.

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Women’s Strawweight: Angela Hill (-390) vs Ashley Yoder (+325)

Our prelim main event features the no.12 women’s strawweight, Angela “Overkill” Hill (12-9-0, 6-9 UFC), taking on Ashley “Spider Monkey” Yoder (8-6-0, 3-5 UFC). Hill is a big favorite even when she is on a two-fight skid, which leaves Yoder as a big underdog despite her November 2020 victory over Miranda Granger. Hill’s last fight was a September 2020 split decision loss to Michelle Waterson in a UFC Fight Night main event spot. Hill is 5-0 by KO/TKO, 0-2 by decision, and 7-7 by decision in her career, whereas Yoder is 0-0 by KO/TKO, 4-0 by submission, and 4-6 by decision. There is no value in backing Hill straight up, so take her to win by decision.