UFC Vegas 24 main card predictions & best bets – April 17, 2021

The main card of UFC Vegas 24 this Saturday is loaded with competitive fights. Only one of the five bouts leading into the main event between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum has a favorite that is shorter than -145. This should be a fun event to handicap and a great one to watch.

Lightweight: Jeremy Stephens (-125) vs Drakkar Klose (+105)

Jeremy Stephens (28-18-0) picked up his last win in February of 2018. Since then, he’s been in five fights, losing four of them and having one of them ruled a no contest due to an eye poke. He was most recently knocked out by Calvin Kattar at UFC 249 last May. Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) is also entering this fight coming off of a knockout loss, as Beneil Dariush defeated him at UFC 248 in March of 2020. While Stephens’ recent form doesn’t instil much confidence, his losses have come against top-tier featherweights in Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and Jose Aldo. Facing a far less dangerous opponent Saturday in Klose, Stephens should get back into the win column.

Heavyweight: Andrei Arlovski (-140) vs Chase Sherman (+120)

Chase Sherman (15-6-0) had an unsuccessful run in the UFC from 2016 through 2018 going 2-5 with three straight losses to get cut from the promotion. He earned three straight knockout wins in Island Fights to get another shot at the UFC, and he took advantage of it with a knockout win over Isaac Villanueva. Now he gets a sterner test against the veteran Andrei Arlovski (30-20), who is just 3-5 over his last eight fights (and 3-6 if you include his since-overturned loss to Walt Harris). Look for the improved Sherman to get the job done here.

Middleweight: Abdul Razak Alhassan (-310) vs Jacob Malkoun (+260)

Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-3-0) is the one big favorite with UFC bookmakers on this main card, and for good reason. All 10 of Alhassan’s professional wins have come by first-round knockout. He’s an all-or-nothing fighter that goes for the early knockout and either gets it or dies trying, as he did when he fatigued himself in his loss to Mounir Lazzez and when he knocked out in his last fight against Kalinn Williams. Jacob Malkoun (4-1-0) suffered a first-round knockout loss to Phil Hawes in his UFC debut last October and is likely headed to a similar fate in this one.

Lightweight: Luis Pena (-145) vs Alexander Munoz (+125)

Luis Pena (8-3-0) is 1-2 over his last three fights since starting off his UFC career with a 3-1 record. Pena will try to get back on track against Alex Munoz (6-1-0), who was 6-0 before losing in his UFC debut against Nasrat Haqparast back in August. Pena’s huge height and reach advantages should allow him to keep Munoz at a distance and keep the fight off of the mat often enough to secure a win.

Bantamweight: Bill Algeo (-115) vs Ricardo Ramos (-105)

Bill Algeo (14-5-0) is 2-2 over his last four fights with two decision wins and two decision losses, including a 1-1 record in the UFC. Ricardo Ramos (14-3-0) is 5-2 in the UFC but was knocked out in the first round by Lerone Murphy in his last fight in July. All three of Ramos’s professional losses have come via first-round stoppage; when he settles into a fight and can take it to the mat, he wins. Algeo’s lack of serious power and weak takedown defense should play into Ramos’s strengths.