UMBC Retrievers vs. Kansas State Wildcats betting preview

UMBC Retrievers (25-10 SU 4-1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (23-11 SU 15-16 ATS)

DATE: 6:45 PM ET Sunday March 15 on TRUTV

LINE: OFF

UMBC made history in their last game as the first 16 seed to take down a #1 seed in their 74-54 win over Virginia. Not only did they pull off the massive upset against Virginia, but they won by 20 points. The Retrievers put up 74 points on a Virginia team that ranks 1st in the nation in points allowed only giving up an average of 53.4 ppg. Overall, UMBC has won six in a row and nine of their last 10 games

Kansas State advanced to the 2nd round beating Creighton where they played great defense in the 69-59 win. They outscored the Bluejays by six points in the first half holding them to only 26 points and they shot a solid 46% from the floor while holding Creighton to a FG% of only 33.8%. The Wildcats are not a high scoring team, but are led by a defense that ranks tied for 58th in the nation in points allowed.

In their games held at a neutral site this season UMBC is 1-1 and Kansas State is 3-3.

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Key betting trends & team news

UMBC stats
UMBC is 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
UMBC has an Over record of 3-1 in their last 4 games.

Kansas State stats
Kansas State is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games.
Kansas State is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games held at a neutral site.
Kansas State has an Under record of 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.

In their historic win over Virginia in the first round of the Big Dance UMBC outscored the Cavaliers by 20 points in the 2nd half after the game was tied at halftime. They dealt with the tough defense of Virginia and they shot 54.2% from the floor with a 3-pt FG% of 50% while they held UVA to 41.1% shooting and a 3-pt FG% of only 18.2%. Leading scorer on the season Jairus Lyles went for 28 points in the game to lead the Retrievers, Arkel Lamar had a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds, and four of five starters scored in double figures. Lyles is the player the Wildcats have to key on and he has gone for at least 27 points in each of his last two games.

Barry Brown was the high scorer for Kansas State in their win over Creighton with 18 points on 5/14 shooting and six rebounds and freshman Mike McGuirl, who is only averaging 1.6 ppg on the season, blew up for 17 points coming off the bench. Dean Wade and Brown are the two leading scorers for KSU at 16.5 ppg and 16 ppg respectively and Wade missed the Creighton game, but may play in this one. Wade is 6/’10 and also leads the Wildcats in rebounding and if he cannot go it will be a big loss, as his size could cause big problems for UMBC.

Retrievers v Wildcats odds

Moneyline: UMBC +445 v Kansas State --100
Spread: UMBC +10 -107 v Kansas State -10 -113
Over/Under: Over 135.5 -110 v Under 135.5 -110

UMBC v Kansas State bet prediction & best bet

Can UMBC do it again? Hard not to have a letdown after such a huge win, but I think the Retrievers can do it. They are confident and will come out and play well again and while they may not get the W they will cover the spread in what will be a close game.

Best bet: Back UMBC to cover the spread at +10, paying -107 at Bovada.