UFC Vegas 40 main card preview & best bets – October 16, 2021

A heavyweight bout between up-and-comer Carlos Felipe and veteran Andrei Arlovski will serve as the co-main event of UFC Vegas 40 this Saturday night. Here’s a preview of that matchup and the other three fights on the main card leading up to the main event of Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont Viana.

Heavyweight: Carlos Felipe (-119) vs Andrei Arlovski (-101)

Carlos Felipe (11-1-0) entered the UFC with an 8-0 record and six knockouts. All four of his first four fights with the promotion have been decided by decision; Felipe lost his UFC debut by majority decision to Sergey Spivak, won by unanimous decision against Yorgan de Castro, and has since picked up back-to-back split decision wins over Justin Tafa and Jake Collier.

Andrei Arlovski (31-20-0) bounced back from his submission loss to Tom Aspinall in February with a decision win over Chase Sherman just two months later. Arlovski has been enjoying success in the gatekeeper role in over the last two years, snapping four-fight winning streaks against Sherman and Philipe Lins and ending Tanner Boser’s 4-1 run.

This is a tough one to call. Felipe has shown some nice potential in his brief UFC run, but his lack of power and indecisive victories have us leaning towards Arlovski in this one.

Lightweight: Jim Miller (-225) vs Erick Gonzalez (+190)

Jim Miller (32-16) has lost each of his last two fights and is 4-8 over his last 12 fights. Erick Gonzalez (14-5-0) will be making his UFC debut on Saturday and is 4-1 over his last five fights. This is not a good matchup for the newcomer; Miller’s best days may be behind him, but he’s still a dangerous grappler with 18 submission wins to his name. Gonzalez may win if he can keep the fight off the mat for 15 minutes, but it’s far more likely that he eventually succumbs to a takedown and falls prey to a submission maneuver.

Women’s Flyweight: Manon Fiorot (-230) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (+195)

Manon Fiorot (7-1-0) lost the first fight of her career by split decision and has been a one-woman wrecking crew ever since. Fiorot has won seven straight fights with five straight knockouts including a knockout win in her UFC debut against Tabatha Ricci. Mayra Bueno (7-1-1) Silva meanwhile is a submission specialist with a 2-1-1 record in the UFC and five of her seven career wins coming via submission. Sure, Silva could steal a win with a well-timed submission, but Fiorot is vastly superior at creating offense and will probably knock her out before Silva gets the chance.

Middleweight: Julian Marquez (-248) vs Jordan Wright (+213)

This fight is going to be a banger. Julian Marquez (9-2-0) has earned all nine of his career wins by stoppage (six knockouts, three submissions) and Jordan Wright (12-1-0) has never had a fight go past the first minute of round two with seven knockout wins, five submission wins and one knockout loss. Marquez is better at picking his spots than Wright is, and should be the one who ends up coming out on top in what should be a fast-paced and exciting fight to open Saturday’s main card.