UFC 191 picks: Johnson vs. Dodson II betting preview

Saturday, September 5th 2015 at 7:00pm ET (Prelims) & 10:00pm ET (PPV)

Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: PPV (Main Card) / Fox Sports 1 & UFC Fight Pass (Prelims)

SOME of these pay-per-view cards recently have real limited value. I guess as long as Dana White throws a title fight on the card, we’ll all happily pay up. UFC 191 boasts a great championship fight, but the rest of the card is lacking.

Injuries haven’t played a major part on this fight card either. Anyways, let’s breakdown the main event.

Johnson vs. Dodson predictions and gambling lines

Demetrious Johnson (C) will fight John Dodson in the main event at UFC 191 for the flyweight championship.

Mighty Mouse is an incredible talent and he has done so much in the UFC at just 29 years of age. He hasn’t lost since 2011 (Cruz) and he’s currently on an 8-fight win streak – all but one of those fights were scheduled for five rounds.

During the current streak, Johnson has wins against Ian McCall, Joseph Benavidez (2x), John Moraga, Ali Bagautinov, Chris Cariaso, Kyoji Horiguchi and Dodson. These two fought in 2013 and Johnson won by decision after five rounds.

Dodson hasn’t lost since losing to Johnson in 2013, but he also only has three wins since then. Dodson has wins over Darrell Montague, Moraga and Zach Makovsky. In comparison – Johnson has five wins since the Dodson fight.

Let’s take a look at the latest UFC gambling lines for Johnson vs. Dodson:

Money Line: Demetrious Johnson -500 (Bovada) vs. John Dodson +400 (5Dimes)
Round Total: Over 2.5 Rounds -200 vs. Under 2.5 Rounds +170 (5Dimes)
Win by Decision: Demetrious Johnson -135 vs. John Dodson +625
Win ITD: Demetrious Johnson +240 vs. John Dodson +500

The odds to win by TKO/KO and submission aren’t out yet, but will be later in the week at 5Dimes. Bet on UFC 191 at 5Dimes to get the best odds and props or join Bovada.lv (USA Only) to get a $250 cash bonus.

Little surprise here really – Johnson is the better fighter and proved that in the first fight. Dodson has bounced back with three wins, but the best win was against Moraga who is ranked 6th in the flyweight division right now.

Tale of the tape FOR UFC 191

Demetrious Johnson (22-2-1)

Age: 29

Height: 5’3”

Reach: 66”

Stance: Orthodox

Stoppage Victories: 13 (4 TKO/KO & 9 Submissions)

Stoppage Losses: 0

John Dodson (17-6)

Age: 30

Height: 5’3”

Reach: 66”

Stance: Orthodox

Stoppage Victories: 10 (8 TKO/KO & 2 Submissions)

Stoppage Losses: 0

Wow! These two are identical. Dodson is slightly older, but they both have identical height and reach. Both fighters can finish fights too, but they’re not strictly finishers. At this weight class, a lot of the fights end up going the distance.

Neither fighter has ever been stopped either, which is very impressive, even at this weight class.

Dodson vs. Johnson II fight preview

Best Bet: Demetrious Johnson ITD +240 at 5Dimes.eu

These two fighters may be similar in some ways, but Johnson is a much more well-rounded fighter, plus he’s younger.

In the stand-up – Mighty Mouse is averaging 3.46 SLpM (53% Accuracy) and he absorbs 1.76 strikes per minute (66% Defense). The Magician lands 3.26 SLpM (35% Accuracy) and absorbs 3.37 strikes per minute (61% Defense).

Both fighters have pretty good striking defense, but Dodson is too wild with his punches. Not only does that wear you down as a fighter, but often the more accurate striker will score better in the judges’ eyes.

Where Johnson has a massive edge is his takedown ability for a small fighter. Johnson averages 3.74 TD’s per 15 minutes in the cage, while Dodson only averages 1.12 TD’s. Johnson is also more accurate at landing his TD’s (55% vs. 40%).

In the first fight between these two, Johnson dominated in both departments.

Johnson landed 127 significant strikes and 5 TD’s, while Dodson landed 57 significant strikes and 1 TD.

It wasn’t even close and we can expect more of the same in this fight. The question we have to ask is whether or not Johnson will finish Dodson, which is something he was unable to do in the first fight.

Mighty Mouse has finished four of his five opponents since the first Dodson fight – only Bagautinov made it the distance.

Johnson is in his prime and he has been finishing fighters at a higher rate than he ever has. Dodson still hasn’t been stopped in his career, but I believe Mighty Mouse will be able to lock in a submission from the mat this time.

UFC 191 parlay predictions

Parlay: Demetrious Johnson ML, Anthony Johnson ML & Mir/Arlovski U1.5 Rounds +133

Andrei Arlovski (24-10-0-1) has quietly gone 3-0 in his second UFC stint, with wins against Schaub, Silva and Browne. He is fighting Frank Mir (18-9). Mir is looking for his third win this year – he has already beaten Silva and Duffee.

Both Mir and Arlovski have finished their last two opponents in the opening round. These heavyweights don’t have much stamina, especially at their age (36), so I expect a quick finish. I lean Arlovski, but Mir has looked great in 2015.

I’m also betting on Anthony Johnson (19-5) to beat Jimi Manuwa (15-1).

Johnson just lost to Cormier, but he remains the #1 contender. This is a huge opportunity for Manuwa to jump up the LHW rankings – he’s currently ranked 7th. Manuwa is a power striker (13 TKO/KO Wins), but Johnson has a good chin.

Only one fighter has knocked out Johnson (Burns in 2008), so Manuwa isn’t likely to get the stoppage win. Johnson is more technical and his defense is incredible. The payout odds aren’t huge, but these are my best bets.