NFL 2021 Week 12 preview, best bets & value picks

The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 over their last four games heading into this Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos in Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season. We’ve got a pick in that divisional matchup and plays in the Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders games in this weekend’s NFL betting picks.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

The Los Angeles Chargers (6-5-0) are just 2-4 (1-5 ATS) over their last six games, most recently losing 28-13 as three-point favorites against the Denver Broncos. The Cincinnati Bengals (7-4-0) have picked up back-to-back blowout wins over the Las Vegas Raiders at 32-13 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 41-10.

Cincinnati’s starting running back Joe Mixon had a field day in both of those games, rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders and 165 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. Now Mixon will have a shot against the NFL’s worst rushing defense, as the Chargers allow 145.3 rushing yards per game. With better current form, home-field advantage and this mismatch in the running game, the Bengals look like a pretty strong play this Sunday.

Washington Football Team (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)

The Washington Football Team (5-6-0) has turned its season around with three straight wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, and Seattle Seahawks. The Las Vegas Raiders (6-5-0) snapped a three-game losing streak on Thanksgiving with a 36-33 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Washington doesn’t usually generate high-scoring games, but this Sunday’s matchup against the Raiders figures to be an exception.

With a high-powered passing offense and weak defense, the Raiders are an OVER machine; 11 of their last 16 games and eight of their last 10 home games have gone above the posted points total. With Washington’s solid running game facing Las Vegas’s 25th-ranked rushing defense, and with the Raiders’ passing attack going up against Washington’s 30th-ranked pass defense, both teams should be able to comfortably run their offenses. Take the OVER.

Denver Broncos (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

At first glance, this spread is a bit surprising. The Denver Broncos (6-5-0) are 3-1 over their last four games and have been playing lockdown defense, allowing only 17.2 points per game over their last four games. The Kansas City Chiefs (7-4-0) have won four straight games, but they’ve scored 20 points or less in four of their last five and haven’t really been blowing teams out.

The key here is the bye week. Kansas City had last Sunday off to rest and prepare for this week’s game, and head coach Andy Reid is notoriously strong coming out of bye weeks in his career with a 19-3 regular season record in such spots. The Chiefs have been playing great on defense, so with a week off for Reid to work his magic and get the offense back on track, look for Kansas City to be on the right side of a blowout win this weekend.