Oliveira vs Poirier main event preview & best bets – UFC 269

Charles Oliveira will make his first defense of the UFC Lightweight Championship against Dustin Poirier this Saturday night in the main event of UFC 269. BettingPlanet’s UFC expert presents his insights and top picks for the headline act at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Oliveira vs Poirier UFC 269 fight analysis

Charles Oliveira (31-8-0) wrapped up 2018 with a knockout loss to Paul Felder, falling to 2-4 over his last six fights with two knockout losses and two submission losses. Since then, the Brazilian is unbeaten with a perfect 9-0-0 record, racking up five submission wins and three knockouts over that stretch, including a second-round knockout win over Michael Chandler to win the UFC Lightweight Championship at UFC 262 in May. Oliveira holds records for the most submission wins (14) and the most Performance of the Night awards (11) in UFC history and is still only 32 years old.

Dustin Poirier (28-6-0) took a detour in his pursuit of the UFC Lightweight Championship to pick up a pair of big paydays with back-to-back knockout wins over Conor McGregor. Poirier is 8-1-0 over his last nine fights with an impressive list of wins including McGregor, Dan Hooker, Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje. His only loss since 2016 came via submission against Khabib Nurmagomedov in his last shot at the lightweight title.

Oliveira vs Poirier betting predictions

This is a fascinating matchup between two guys that just consistently win. Dustin Poirier has had far tougher fights over the last four years than Charles Oliveira has, but the latter doesn’t make the fights. Oliveira has been dominant in all of the ones he has had, with a stunning seven of his last night fights earning Performance of the Night awards.

The winner of this championship bout will be the one that is able to impose his fight style on the match. Oliveira is a solid striker, but his 3.26 significant strikes per minute can’t stack up against Poirier’s 5.63 average. If this fight stays off of the mat, Poirier should eventually grind Oliveira down and deliver a decisive knockout blow.

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But on the other hand, if this fight does get to the mat, Poirier will have to deal with one of the best submission specialists in UFC history. Oliveira averages 2.64 takedowns per 15 minutes and Poirier has a suspect takedown defense, stuffing only 61% of takedown attempts he faces. This feels a bit like it will be a race to who can get their finish sooner, with Oliveira gunning for a submission and Poirier gunning for a knockout.

Both outcomes seem quite likely. Poirier deserves to be the favorite given his experience and consistency against top-tier opponents. Still, the odds feel a bit lopsided; Oliveira is too tough to pass up on here as an underdog considering his talent and current form.