UFC 269 betting picks & top value plays – Saturday, December 11

Geoff Neal and Santiago Ponzinibbio meet in the final non-title matchup of the UFC 269 fight card this Saturday. Here’s a closer look at that fight and the other two on the main card leading up to the two title matches of Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena and Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier in Las Vegas.

Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-125) vs Geoff Neal (+105)

Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-4-0) bounced back from a knockout loss to Li Jinglang in January with a decision win over Miguel Baeza in June. Ponzinibbio had won each of his previous seven fights with Performance of the Night honors against Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny before his loss to Jinglang. Geoff Neal (13-4-0) has lost each of his last two fights to Magny and Stephen Thompson since opening his UFC career with a 5-0-0 record.

On paper this shapes up to be an exciting fight. Both fighters are most comfortable keeping the fight off of the mat and trading blows at a high frequency, so fight fans know exactly what to expect here. It’s hard not to go with Ponzinibbio; the loss to Jinglang can be chalked up to ring rust after a 27-month layoff, and he looked much sharper in his Fight of the Night against Baeza. This should be a bout in which both Neal and Ponzinibbio get some offense in, but eventually we see Ponzinibbio coming out on top.

Flyweight: Cody Garbrandt (-133) vs Kai Kara-France (+113)

Former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt (12-4-0) is set to make his flyweight debut this Saturday against Kai Kara-France (22-9-0). Garbrandt is just 1-4 over his last five fights; he picked up a dazzling knockout win over Raphael Assuncao at UFC 250 but followed that up with a decision loss to Rob Font. Kara-France meanwhile has alternated wins and losses over his last four fights with a 2-2 record since going 8-0 in his previous eight (including a 3-0 start in the UFC).

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The weight cut down to flyweight could end up working out great for Garbrandt if he can carry his power (10 of his 12 professional wins have come by knockout) down with him. But it could also end up depleting him. Kara-France is a perfectly reasonable selection in this fight given the unknowns swirling around Garbrandt, though we still think Garbrandt is the superior fighter and are willing to take a shot on him at this price.

Bantamweight: Sean O’Malley (-300) vs Raulian Paiva (+250)

Sean O’Malley (14-1-0) has bounced back from the only loss of his career at UFC 252 with back-to-back knockout wins over Thomas Almeida and Kris Moutinho in 2021. He has now picked up each of his last for wins in the UFC and 10 of his 14 career wins by knockout. Raulian Paiva (21-3-0) opened his UFC career with an 0-2 record before winning each of his last three fights, most recently beating Kyler Phillips by decision in July.

Paiva has a strong chin and is a solid counter-striker, which in theory should bode well against a heavy hitter like O’Malley. But O’Malley is just too fast and too strong; his only loss came due to a mid-match injury. When healthy, he’s an absolute beast, and this should be another knockout win for him.