UFC Fight Night 203 main card preview & best bets – 12/3/2022

A bantamweight bout between Song Yadong and Marlon Moraes will serve as the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 203 card in Las Vegas. Here’s a closer look at that matchup and the other four fights on the main card ahead of Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev in the headline slot.

Bantamweight: Marlon Moraes (+200) vs Song Yadong (-235)

Song Yadong (18-5-1) has bounced back nicely from his first career loss in the UFC to Kyler Phillips with back-to-back wins over Casey Kenney and Julio Acre. Yadong is 7-1-1 in nine career UFC bouts with three knockout wins and one submission win over that stretch. Marlon Moraes (23-9-1) meanwhile has suffered three straight knockout losses to Cory Sandhagen, Rob Font, and Merab Dvalishvili. He is 1-4 over his last five fights since going 4-0 with three straight Performance of the Night honors in his previous four fights.

You could make the argument that Yadong isn’t as strong or established as the fighters Moraes has lost to over the last few years, and this could be a fight that the underdog is live in. That may be true, but three knockout losses in a row (and four in his last five fights) gives legitimate cause for concern about this guy’s chin. The most likely result on Saturday is Yadong’s striking abilities taking advantage of this clear weakness in Moraes’s game.

Featherweight: Sodiq Yusuff (-220) vs Alex Caceres (+185)

Sodiq Yusuff (11-2-0) suffered his first loss in the UFC to Arnold Allen in his last fight back in April. Yusuff was 6-0 over his previous six fights including a win over Andre Fili at UFC 246. Alex Caceres (19-12-0) has reinvented himself in the octagon in recent years, compiling a 5-0-0 record over his last five fights since going just 4-7-0 in his previous 11 bouts with the promotion.

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Yusuff is the more promising prospect in this bout, but Caceres is too good to pass up on at this price. His main issue in the UFC has been falling prey to submissions with seven submission losses, but that won’t be an issue against Yusuff, who is primarily a striker. Caceres has won two of his last three fights by submission and should feel comfortable taking this fight to the ground and potentially grinding out an upset.

Light Heavyweight: Khalil Rountree Jr (+117) vs Karl Roberson (-137)

Karl Roberson (9-4-0) has suffered back-to-back decision losses against Brendan Allen and Marvin Vettori and is now 4-4-0 in the UFC with four submission losses. Fortunately for him, he won’t have to worry about being submitted against Khalil Rountree Jr, who is a boom-or-bust fighter that will be looking to win this one with his striking. Rountree (9-5-1) is 5-4-0 in the UFC (5-5 if you count an overturned decision loss) with four knockout wins and three stoppage losses. We like Roberson to avoid the early onslaught of strikes and to eventually find the right spot to end this fight with a timely submission maneuver.

Lightweight: Drew Dober (-164) vs Terrance McKinney (+144)

Drew Dober (23-11-0) has suffered back-to-back losses to Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell since going 6-1 over his previous seven fights. Terrance McKinney (12-3-0) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of a five-fight winning streak. Dober’s last three losses have all come against very high-tier prospects in Riddell, Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. McKinney enters the UFC with plenty of hype and an upset isn’t out of the question, but this price isn’t giving nearly enough respect to a very solid fighter in Dober.

Middleweight: Alex Pereira (-175) vs Bruno Silva (+150)

Alex Pereira (4-1-0) has won each of his last four MMA fights by knockout since losing by submission in his professional debut back in 2015. Bruno Silva (22-6-0) is 7-0-0 over his last seven fights with seven straight knockout wins including a 3-0 start in the UFC. A whopping 19 of Silva’s 22 career wins have come by knockout. This should be a banger of main card opener between two fighters that will be going for the kill from start to finish. We’ll side with Pereira and his elite kick-boxing skills in this spot.