UFC Fight Night 204 main card picks & top value bets – 19/3/2022

A featherweight bout between Arnold Allen and Dan Hooker will serve as the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 204 card in London. Here’s a closer look at this bout and the other four matches on the main card leading up to the headline act of Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov.

Featherweight: Arnold Allen (-120) vs Dan Hooker (+100)

Arnold Allen (17-1-0) is off to a perfect 8-0-0 start to his UFC career, which began back in June of 2015. Six of Allen’s eight wins have come by way of decision while the other two came via submission. The 28-year-old England native will have the home crowd behind him in this one as he faces his first top-ten ranked opponent.

Dan Hooker (21-11-0) has lost three of his last four fights, though all three of those losses came against top-tier lightweight opponents in Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier. Prior to this recent slump, Hooker was 7-1 over his previous eight fights with four knockout wins over that stretch.

Much like the main event, this is an extremely tough fight to cap with a talented up-and-comer facing his toughest test to date against a talented but not elite opponent. And we’re once again siding with the veteran. Hooker has competed at featherweight before, so cutting weight shouldn’t be a problem. And if his power carries with him to the lower weight class, he should have the advantage in that department. This should be a great fight, but we lean slightly towards Hooker.

Lightweight: Paddy Pimblett (-450) vs Rodrigo Vargas (+350)

Paddy Pimblett (17-3-0) enjoyed a successful UFC debut last September with a first-round knockout over Luigi Vendramimi. Rodrigo Vargas (12-4-0) snapped a two-fight losing streak with his win over Zhu Rong last April, but is still just 3-3 over his last six fights. This fight is booked as a crowd-pleaser for the London crowd as they’ll have the chance to root on an England native in a fight that he shouldn’t have much trouble picking up a knockout victory in.

Welterweight: Gunnar Nelson (-460) vs Takashi Sato (+360)

Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1) will make his return to the Octagon after a long 29-month layoff this Saturday. Nelson is just 4-5-0 over his last nine fight since opening his career with a 13-0-1 record. The submission specialist has earned 12 of his 17 career wins by submission, and he’s being handed an opponent in Takashi Soto (16-4-0) who is just 2-2 in UFC competition and who has suffered each of his last three professional losses by submission. As the betting odds at Bovada indicate, this is another fight that the UFC has scheduled as a showcase.

Women’s Flyweight: Molly McCann (-135) vs Luana Carolina (+115)

Molly McCann (11-4-0) snapped a two-fight losing streak with a decision win over Ji Yeon Kim in September to improve to 4-2 over her last six fights. Luana Carolina (8-2-0) is 7-1 over her last eight fights with a 3-1 record thus far in the UFC. McCann will have her home crowd behind her as a Liverpool native, but her matchup isn’t lopsided like others on the card. This figures to be a competitive fight that will almost certainly go to the judge’s table; there maybe value on Carolina as the underdog here, but we think McCann’s experience leads her to a win.

Lightweight: Jai Herbert (+350) vs Ilia Topuria (-450)

Ilia Topuria (11-0-0) is undefeated as a professional including a 3-0-0 start in the UFC with back-to-back knockout wins over Ryan Hall and Damon Jackson. Jai Herbert (11-3-0) has earned all but two of his professional wins by knockout, but he’s also been on the receiving end of a pair of knockout losses. Herbert will be a crowd favorite as a Wolverhampton native, but his questionable chin makes him a huge target against a fighter of Topuria’s caliber.