Free tips for Selwood, Menzel & Pav, AFL Friday Dockers vs. Cats

ONE of these teams was second before last weekend, the other third last.

Yet Fremantle and Geelong sport identical records over the past five rounds.

Both have lost their last two, after winning the previous three.

The Cats are meant to be AFL Premiership hopefuls, while the Dockers have admitted they’ve entered into a rebuild.

On paper, this match looks like an easy win to Geelong.

But a bit of paper never won a game of footy.

Don’t get too carried away though; we do think the Cats will win, but it isn’t the fait accompli the odds would have you believe.

Geelong have lost two in a row, falling to St Kilda and then to Sydney last Friday at the Cattery.

It is some very unflattering form for a side that fancies itself as a premiership contender.

The 15.8 (98) to 9.6 (60) loss to the Swans had the Cats sliding from second to sixth, so the long trek to Perth is not exactly the ideal tonic to getting back on track, even if it is against the lowly Dockers.

Simonds Stadium is supposed to be a fortress for the Cats, and while Patrick Dangerfield is no doubt the recruit of the season – has he made them a bit one dimensional?

Dangerfield did Dangerfield things, racking up a ridiculous 18 disposals in the first quarter, but his influence was quelled after the first break and, with that, so were Geelong.

He still ended up with 34 touches, but his eight frees for gives you an idea of how hard the Swans made it for him.

Andrew Mackie was the Cats’ next best with 28 and Mitch Duncan had 24, but captain Joel Selwood had little influence on the contest with his 23 disposals.

Geelong found it hard to pierce the best defence in the competition, with only Tom Hawkins and Daniel Menzel – two goals each – managing to hit the scoreboard multiple times.

The Cats were beaten at their own game, on their own deck, and should come out breathing fire against Freo.

Dangerfield is the popular man to back, but that has had a great impact on his odds. He has only bettered 35 twice this season, but is a super short $2.37 to do it.

He’s $1.30 to have over 30 and, considering he’s only fallen under that figure once in the past six weeks, it’s probably a good bet, but we’d prefer a little more bang for our buck.

We’re going with Joel Selwood to bust through the 30-possession barrier. He had one of his worst games of the season last week, so we can see him up for a big bounce back against a weaker opposition.

He is $2 at Sportsbet to crack the mark.

On the goal front, Hawkins is the match favourite at $8.50, but the mercurial Menzel is our pick. He’s the reason the Cats let Steve Johnson go and he has been superb for them this season.

Whether it’s in the air or on the ground, he just has a nose for goal and is great value at $10 to boot the first one.

Nakia Cockatoo has been great since he returned to the side and might be worth a look at $17 if you prefer an outsider.

After a three-match unbeaten run, the Dockers looked like they had their season back on track, but reality has kicked in again with losses to Collingwood before their bye and then Melbourne on the weekend.

The margin was only 22 points against the Dees, but the reality is it should have been far worse, with Melbourne’s 27 scoring shots yielding 12.15 (87) to the Dockers’ 8.7 (55).

Lachie Neale further enhanced his reputation as a ball magnet, collecting another 33 disposals. Whether his side is winning or not, teams find it impossible to stop him.

The fall off in that side is remarkable, with Stephen Hill and Cameron Sutcliffe the next best with 22 touches – some 11 fewer than Neale.

Matthew Pavlich showed there’s still life left in his AFL career with three goals and Chris Mayne booted a brace, but there wasn’t much to speak of outside of those two.

Pavlich is the obvious choice as a first goalscorer pick at $11 for the Dockers and it’s ditto for Neale in the possession count.

But, like Dangerfield, he is awkwardly priced. It’s hard to back him at $1.25 to get more than 30, but he is only $2.20 to get 35 or more – something he has done four times this year, but you’d still like a bit more bang for your buck.

Perhaps Hill is the man to look at. He had 22 on the weekend and has had 25 or more in four of his last six. He’s going OK and the $2.10 about him to have 25 looks more attainable.

Fremantle vs. Geelong player prop tips

First goalscorer

Fremantle Dockers:

• Matthew Pavlich ($11)

Geelong Cats:

• Daniel Menzel ($10)

Possession bets

Fremantle Dockers:

• Stephen Hill to have 25 possessions or more ($2.10)

Geelong Cats:

• Patrick Dangerfield to have 30 possessions or more ($1.30)
• Joel Selwood to have 30 possessions or more ($2)

Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au

Match predictions

Match result: Geelong wins ($1.17 at CrownBet)

Line betting: Fremantle +31.5 ($1.90 at Sportsbet)

History goes out the window a bit in this one, because Fremantle are a vastly different side to the one the Cats lost to in round two last season. Geelong should have the class across all lines to get the job done, even though they have to travel to Perth. They will be hell-bent on getting their season back on track and, while we think the Dockers can stick with them, they should be able to get the job done. They won’t want a repeat of St Kilda – or Collingwood – against the lowly Dockers.