UFC on ABC 3 main card preview & best bets – July 16, 2022

Michelle Waterson and Amanda Lemos will jostle for position in the UFC Women’s Strawweight rankings with their co-main event fight this Saturday night in New York. Here’s a preview of that matchup and the other four fights on the UFC on ABC 3 betting card leading up to the main event of Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez.

Women’s Strawweight: Michelle Waterson (+270) vs Amanda Lemos (-320)

Amanda Lemos (11-2-1) had a five-fight winning streak snapped in her last bout against Jessica Andrade when she lost via first-round submission in April. Michelle Waterson (18-9-0) also lost her most recent bout which came over a year ago in May 2021 against Marina Rodriguez, falling to 1-3-0 over her last four fights in the process.

It’s difficult to make much of a case for Waterson here, who will not only be at a clear power disadvantage, but who also hasn’t fought in 14 months. Waterson has shown a strong enough chin over her career to suggest that she can withstand Lemos’s power long enough to avoid a knockout, but she probably won’t be able to get enough offense of her own going to avoid a decision loss.

Welterweight: Li Jingliang (+140) vs Muslim Salikhov (-160)

Muslim Salikhov (18-2-0) bounced back nicely from a loss to Alex Garcia in his UFC debut with five straight wins, improving to 16-1-0 over his last 17 fights. Li Jingliang meanwhile has been going in the opposite direction with losses in two of his last three fights, most recently losing by submission to Khamzat Chimaev in the first round at UFC 267. Jingliang could be a tough test for Salikhov, and he might be worth a shot if his price climbs up over +175; but with this current betting line, Salikhov is the play as the fighter in much better form.

Flyweight: Matt Schnell (+230) vs Sumudaerji (-270)

Sumudaerji (16-4-0) has won each of his last three fights since losing his UFC debut to Louis Smolka back in 2018. The flyweight has earned 13 of his 16 career victories by way of knockout. Matt Schnell (15-6-0) has lost three of his last four fights, though his loss to Rogeiro Bontorin was later overturned due to Bontorin failing a drug test. This could be a fun clash of styles as Schnell will be looking to wrestle and Sumudaerji will hope to keep the fight off the mat, but we expect Sumudaerji to control the tempo as the more talented fighter in this matchup.

Featherweight: Shane Burgos (-175) vs Charles Jourdain (+150)

Shane Burgos (14-3-0) snapped a two-fight losing streak with his decision win over Billy Quarantillo at UFC 268. Charles Jourdain (13-4-1) has won each of his last two fights after going 1-2-1 over his previous four fights. It’s tempting to take a shot on Jourdain here given his recent results, but Burgos has the more impressive skillset and resume to date. He badly needs this win, and we’ll roll with him to get it.

Women’s Flyweight: Lauren Murphy (+167) vs Miesha Tate (-192)

Miesha Tate (19-8-0) came out of retirement with a knockout win over Marion Reneau before losing her next bout via decision to Ketlen Vieira. Lauren Murphy (15-5-0) had a five-fight winning streak snapped with a knockout loss against Valentina Shevchenko in a fight for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship at UFC 266. Tate may be the better fighter on paper, but her only win since 2016 came against a fighter who ended her career on an 0-5-0 skid. Murphy is a strong enough fighter to back as a live underdog in this spot.

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