Usman vs Edwards 2 betting picks & top odds – UFC 278 main event

The UFC travels to Salt Lake City this Saturday for a solid card that features an intriguing rematch between dominant welterweight champ Kamaru Usman (20-1-0) and patient English contender Leon Edwards (19-3-0). The first battle between these combatants was staged way back in December 2015 and provides little by way of insight for the rematch. For the record, Usman won that three-rounder via unanimous decision.

Usman has fought 13 times since, chalking up 13 victories, including a UFC Welterweight Championship when claiming victory over now part-time celebrity boxer Tyron Woodley. Usman has since defended this title on five successful occasions. Such is Usman’s dominance at welterweight that he has now virtually cleaned out the division and spoken of moving up in weight in search of new challengers.

Usman started his career with a strong wrestling pedigree but has transformed himself into an elite striker, demonstrated by recent KO wins over Jorge Masvidal and Gilbert Burns. This change in strategy has not come without cost, however, and Usman has been dropped several times in recent fights, opening the door for a possible upset this weekend.

Edwards has fought 10 times since the Usman defeat, chalking up nine victories and one no-contest. He has been criticized for his lack of octagon activity in those seven years, but it pays to be patient when a title shot is within reach.

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Edwards most recently fought in June 2021 against fan favourite Nate Diaz. He picked Diaz apart for four and a half rounds, until the Californian landed a thunderous left hand that almost knocked out the Brit. Diaz then inexplicably wasted precious seconds taunting the staggering Edwards instead of going in for the kill – an error that may have cost him victory.

Edwards often seems too content to grind out a points decision and is therefore unloved by the UFC fanbase. He is a crisp striker with a good gas tank but will need to be more aggressive against the charging champ. Usman looks to have the grappling edge, so Edwards would be well served fighting behind a stiff and relentless jab that sets up other striking manoeuvres.

It is almost impossible to tip against Usman given his lengthy welterweight reign. That said, if Edwards gets in the champion’s face early and lands some clean strikes, he may present a headache as the fight wears on. In the ideal scenario for the challenger, he then finishes Usman in the fourth or fifth round.

Usman’s path to victory is straightforward. He will be looking to KO the Brit from the outset, having experienced the joy of early stoppages against Masvidal and Burns, and the damage from protracted wars against Colby Covington.

We are tipping under 4.5 rounds here – paying +125 at Bovada – in the hope that Edwards pushes harder than usual with the title on the line. If he digs in his heels and throws down, we are almost certain to see a KO either way.

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