Alex Pereira v Jamahal Hill fight preview & top picks | UFC 300

UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is headlined by an intriguing main event matchup between light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former champ Jamahal Hill. MMA fans have not seen Hill fight since January 2023 when injury forced him to relinquish his crown, but now fit and ready for redemption, he makes a much-anticipated return to the UFC octagon. Read on for our fight analysis and free UFC betting predictions.

Alex Pereira v Jamahal Hill fight analysis

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill

Alex Pereira (9-2-0) has been a revelation since transitioning from professional kickboxing to MMA. The Brazilian has fought just seven times at UFC level, capturing both the middleweight and light heavyweight titles in an unprecedented run of success. There have only been a handful of dual UFC champions, and none have completed the task within a similarly short timeframe.

The 36-year-old has faced the elite talent of both divisions, including Jiří Procházka, Jan Błachowicz, Israel Adesanya, and Sean Strickland. His sole UFC loss came at the hands of Adesanya, who produced a miraculous knockout punch while backed against the cage. Pereira is a standup fighter with flawless striking technique, particularly an arsenal of low and high kicks that can end a fight in an instant.

Prior to his injury layoff, Jamahal Hill (12-1-0) was on a four-fight win streak with victories over Glover Teixeira, Thiago Santos, Johnny Walker, and Jimmy Crute. He captured the light heavyweight crown with a decision win over Teixeira before rupturing his Achilles tendon while playing recreational basketball. The 32-year-old brings an unorthodox style to the cage, throwing strikes from strange angles, and can be difficult to read and train for as a result.

Hill’s only UFC loss occurred in 2021 when he was finished in round one by Paul Craig after a defensive lapse. Otherwise, he has demonstrated a solid chin, although he can get a little reckless on occasion, dropping his hands and taunting his opponent. The question of ring rust must always be considered when a fighter is returning from a long injury break, and only time will tell if that is a factor in this title bout.

Alex Pereira v Jamahal Hill betting strategy

This looks like a classic standup duel between two of the best strikers in the business. On one side of the equation, it could be argued that Pereira is more likely to be knocked out due to his age and accumulated damage from a long career in martial arts. That said, he is a better defensive fighter who offers fewer opportunities to be struck. Hill is the younger and fresher man but does leave himself open to counterstrikes.

The most likely scenarios are an early KO win to Hill in the first or second round, or a later KO win to Pereira after the openings have been spotted and can be exploited. The third option is that Hill can stick and move for 25 minutes, stay out of danger, and snag a decision result, which appears a tall order.

After lengthy consideration, we are leaning towards the Brazilian to find a home for his lethal striking and emerge with a finish win, maybe in the third or fourth round if it all plays out to plan.

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