Allen v Curtis preview & top betting picks | UFC Fight Night

Brendan Allen headlines UFC Fight Night at the Apex in Las Vegas with an opportunity to avenge his 2021 loss to Chris Curtis. Allen is emerging as a potential contender in the middleweight division, and although he cannot advance his ranking via this matchup, he will be motivated to correct the only blemish on his recent record. Read for our main event analysis and fight prediction.

Brendan Allen v Chris Curtis fight preview

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis

Brendan Allen (23-5-0) is a BJJ grappling wizard with 14 professional wins via submission, the second most in UFC middleweight history. He is on a six-fight win streak that has earned him a top-10 ranking, quietly going about his business of choking out opponents while receiving minimal damage. He has not scored a knockout win since 2020, opting to utilise his silky jiu-jitsu skills instead.

Allen was initially booked to fight Marvin Vettori, but a late injury to the Italian forced a change of plans. He will now face the last man to beat him, way back in April 2021. Beaten fighters always love to run it back when they feel a single error cost them victory, and Allen will relish this opportunity to atone. The 28-year-old can struggle to implement a change of tactics when unable to land a takedown, but that has not been an issue in his recent run of success.

Chris Curtis (31-10-0) scored a second-round knockout over Allen when stepping up as a replacement fighter in a similar scenario. Since then, he has recorded three wins, two losses, and one no-contest. The 36-year-old is coming off a narrow split-decision win over Marc-André Barriault and remains a dangerous proposition at 185 pounds. He holds a purple belt in BJJ and has only been submitted once through his career but will be keen to keep this contest standing due to Allen’s superior grappling skills.

Curtis holds a poor record with the judges, and his bulky frame is bound to fatigue if this fight enters the championship rounds. He boasts 17 professional wins via knockout and will be hunting for an early finish before his fast-twitch muscles become a liability. If he can land a knee or uppercut when Allen is rushing into a takedown attempt, Curtis will be able to switch off the lights. If he overcommits to his punches and is taken to the mat, Allen is likely to dominate.

Allen v Curtis UFC betting strategy

There appear two possible outcomes to this bout: either Curtis scores an early KO, or Allen works his grappling magic. Both fighters will be hunting a stoppage win, but if the contest does go the distance, Allen is almost certain to have his hand raised due to superior cardio. The physical strength of Curtis may make him difficult to submit in the early rounds, but his defence might wane as he tires. Back Allen to win by either submission or decision, and maybe consider a small saver on Curtis via TKO/KO in case he lands early.

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