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Betting analysis & tips for Super Bowl LIII first touchdown-scorer

Super Bowl touchdown

Super Bowl touchdown

It takes only one moment for a player to etch himself in NFL Super Bowl history.

A great catch, a great run or a great pass — there is no better time to show the world what you can do.

There’s no more anticipated touchdown throughout any NFL season than the first one in a Super Bowl.

The first touchdown is one of the most popular betting markets in one of the most popular betting events of the year.

So, where does the smart money lie when it comes to the most-watched scoring play of the 2018-19 season?

Before we take a look at how the bookmakers have framed the market, take a peak at our other comprehensive Super Bowl LIII betting guides:




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2019 Super Bowl – first player to score a touchdown analysis

Todd Gurley +650

While Gurley has the best betting odds in this market, he has to rebound from a less-than-stellar performance in the NFC title game.

In that win over the Saints, Gurley rushed for a grand total of only 10 yards on four carries. Still, he led the NFL this season with 17 rushing touchdowns, 21 overall, and in the Rams’ first playoff game in the win over the Cowboys he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown. It will be interesting, as Gurley is a big gun in the Rams’ offense, but the Patriots have stuffed the run in the playoffs, only giving up 60 rushing yards in two games.

Sony Michel +700

Michel has rushed for at least 113 yards in the two New England playoff games. If this bet was for the AFC title game he would be the winner, as he scored the first touchdown of the game, He may be a good bet to take, as the Patriots have been pounding the ball on the ground in the post-season with Michel getting the bulk of the carries.

C.J. Anderson +850

Hard to believe Anderson is even playing in this game, as he was not even signed by the Rams until late in the season. However, he rushed for at least 123 yards in three straight games, including the Rams first playoff game, before being held to 44 rushing yards in the NFC title game. He shares the backfield with Gurley, which hurts both players chances of winning this bet.

Rob Gronkowski +900

Gronkowski has good odds for this bet and while he did have a HUGE catch in the AFC title game for the two playoff games he has 107 receiving yards and no touchdowns. He, actually, does not have a touchdown in his last five games, but if the pats are deep and it is a passing down Gronk is one of Brady’s top targets.

Julian Edelman +1000

Edelman leads the Patriots with 247 receiving yards in the playoffs, but has not had a touchdown. Still, the leading wide receiver for New England did have a touchdown in each of the last two games of the regular season.

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James White +1200

White only has six carries for 23 yards in the two Patriots’ playoff games, but if the team gets near the goal-line than White may have his number called.

Brandin Cooks +1500

Woods plays alongside Cooks and ranked second on the Rams in receiving yards this season, but, like Cooks, he has not caught a touchdown pass in the playoffs and only had six of them all season.

You can see looking at the odds below that the two star quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Jared Goff are both at long-shot odds at +5000. Neither is a mobile quarterback to say the least and to be the player to win this bet they will have to score a touchdown run. Neither has rushed for a touchdown in the playoffs and Brady has not run the ball into the end zone in his last 12 games.

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