Broncos line betting and try scorer markets for Friday NRL

Ladder position:
Brisbane Broncos: 1st
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 8th

Season record:
Brisbane Broncos: 6-1
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 3-4

Head-to-head odds:
Brisbane Broncos: $1.17 at Crownbet.com.au
South Sydney Rabbitohs: $5.50 at Sportsbet.com.au

Line betting:
Brisbane Broncos: -14.5 ($1.94 with Crownbet.com.au)
South Sydney Rabbitohs: +14.5 ($1.90 with Sportsbet.com.au)

IT was only two years ago when Greg Inglis scorched the sidelines to score a 90-metre game-winning try that gave the Rabbitohs an ANZAC win that few NRL fans will ever forget.

How the times have changed since then.

The Rabbitohs and Greg Inglis in particular haven’t had much to cheer about this season, having notched only three wins from seven games and only one win from the last five. Inglis hasn’t been in the same form which had once enthralled fans and the Australian representative might be carrying an injury.

The Rabbitohs face a juggernaut in the Brisbane Broncos this Friday night, which have rebounded well after losing the 2015 Grand Final in dramatic fashion. To win six from seven this season is a testament to their coach and their mental attitude. The Broncos are on track to make be a key player in NRL premiership race and as the bookmakers’ odds suggest, the Rabbitohs shouldn’t really come close.

The $1.17 offered by Crownbet.com.au is better than the $1.15 being offered elsewhere, but there’s no real value in betting that head-to-head line. It does look a solid multi-bet inclusion to boost those big payouts and that’s the only situation where we would advise taking the short odds.

Friday night marks a special evening for Broncos captain Corey Parker, who will surpass Nathan Hindmarsh as the most-capped NRL forward in history with 331 games. Parker is nearing retirement, but still plays at an elite level and his goal-kicking can often be the difference between winning and losing.

The Broncos are coming off a 53-0 win against Newcastle last week and the Rabbitohs are coming off a 44-18 embarrassment at the hands of the Cowboys.

Updated team lineups and first tryscorer tips

The Broncos haven’t changed the lineup which handed the Knights a 53-0 loss last week. There are only six players from the Broncos to not yet score this season, among them is Corey Parker who is $46 to score first, but we think he might cross the line in this historic game at odds of $7.50.

Scoring tries has come easily for the Broncos this season with Dally M Medal favourite Anthony Milford ($3.50 at Sportsbet) having scored eight tries from only seven games. The star five-eighth has come of age this season under the coaching of Wayne Bennett and he remains a first tryscoring threat at $8.50.

Also making waves in the tryscoring market is current favourite Corey Oates. The big winger has scored six times from five games and bookmakers have him short at $6. With nine line breaks on the season (top for the Broncos) Oates looks a solid play at those odds.

Brisbane Broncos confirmed team:

1. Darius Boyd – $21
2. Corey Oates – $6.00 at Sportsbet.com.au
3. Jack Reed – $13
4. James Roberts – $10
5. Jordan Kahu – $9.50
6. Anthony Milford – $8.50
7. Ben Hunt – $20
8. Josh McGuire – $56
9. Andrew McCullough – $26
10. Adam Blair – $56
11. Alex Glenn – $23
12. Matt Gillett – $17
13. Corey Parker – $46
14. Jarrod Wallace – $41
15. Sam Thaiday – $26
16. Joe Ofahengaue – not yet priced
17. Kodi Nikorima – $17

The South Sydney Rabbitohs have an unchanged lineup from its drubbing against the Cowboys last week, which demonstrates its lack of depth.

Damien Cook comes onto the extended bench for a Rabbitohs side which doesn’t have many try scoring threats. Aaron Gray has scored five times this season with three of those coming in one game. Bryson Goodwin and Cameron McInnes have both scored three times, but Greg Inglis and Kirisome Auva’a have only two tries between them.

We don’t think the Rabbitohs have much chance of scoring first so we will list the anytime tryscorer odds instead.

Rabbitohs team lineup and anytime tryscorer market:

1. Greg Inglis – $3.00
2. Bryson Goodwin – $2.80
3. Kirisome Auva’a – $3.30
4. Hymel Hunt – $3.30
5. Aaron Gray – $2.60
6. Luke Keary – $5.50
7. Adam Reynolds – $7.50
8. Thomas Burgess – $10
9. Cameron McInnes – $6.50
10. David Tyrell – $10
11. Chris Grevsmuhl – $5.50
12. Kyle Turner – $7.50
13. Sam Burgess – $4.50
14. Paul Carter – $6.50
15. Jason Clark – $14
16. Nathan Brown – $14
17. George Burgess – $8.00
18. Damien Cook – not yet priced

Broncos vs. Rabbitohs game prediction and tip

Friday night should be a long night for the Rabbitohs and 2016 should be a long season. The Broncos haven’t let up all season and the Rabbitohs simply don’t match up well against the Queenslanders.

The points spread line of 14.5 is a tough call, but luckily Sportsbet offer alternative points spreads where punters can choose their own lines. We don’t mind taking lower odds for a better chance of winning, therefore we suggest backing the Broncos 11.5 at $1.65 with Sportsbet. That gives is some insurance that the Broncos only have to win by two converted tries and no more.

Anthony Milford to score a try is paying $1.67. Based on his form this season that looks a good bet and teammate James Roberts is paying a handy price of $1.83 to cross the line. Punters haven’t gone wrong backing these two players this season and the Broncos shouldn’t have any problems scoring tries this Friday night.

Broncos 28 – Rabbitohs 14