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Buffalo Bills v Houston Texans – Wild Card NFL Betting Preview

Buffalo Bills v Houston Texans betting predictions

Date and Time: Saturday, January 4, at 4:35 PM ET
Venue: NRG Stadium Houston, TX

Bills v Texans – At a Glimpse

Buffalo Bills (10-6 9-5-2 ATS) at Houston Texans (10-6 7-8-1 ATS)

Betting Line: Texans -2.5 O/U 42.5
Moneyline Odds: Bills +120 – Texans -140

The Bills head to the Lone Star State to take on the AFC South champion Houston Texans in an AFC Wild Card showdown as the NFL season reaches the pointy end.

The Bills did not end the season well, as they lost their last two games and three of their last four. They are led by the league’s third ranked defense and that D may be key, as Buffalo is not a high scoring team and in their last four games only averaged 14.3 ppg.

The Texans won two in a row before being beaten badly in their last game, which did not matter since their playoff spot was set. Deshawn Watson did not play in the season finale, which was a 35-14 home loss to the Tennessee Titans, and +1,000-yard RB Carlos Hyde only carried the rock four times.


These teams did not face each other this season and the favorite has covered the spread in the last four meetings.

Watson leads a balanced Houston offense that ranks 15th in the league in passing yards per game and ninth in rushing yards per game.

On the season the Texans are 5-3 at home and the Bills are 6-2 on the road. Not only was Buffalo a good road team during the season but they are also 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.

Just like the Texans the Bills rested some key starters in their 13-6 loss to the New York Jets in the season finale. Josh Allen only had five pass attempts and the team’s rushing leader in Devin Singletary did not play. Not only that but the top two WR’s in John Brown and Cole Beasley did not play.

Allen passed for 3.089 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season and Brown and Beasley combined for 1,838 receiving yards with 12 touchdowns. Singletary rushed for 775 yards and had two solid games before only rushing for 46 yards averaging 3.1 yards per carry in his last game, which was a loss to the Patriots.

Houston’s defense only ranks 25th in the NFL against the run and 29th against the pass. However, they may get star J.J. Watt back and any help on D is much needed for Houston.

Watson was a MVP candidate in the middle of the season, but did not play in the last game and in his last three games had three touchdowns with five interceptions. He has a legit WR corps led by DeAndre Hopkins (1,165 yards 7 TD) but Houston’s #2 and #3 WR’s in Will Fuller and Kenny Stills are both listed as questionable and that is a big issue in this Wild Card game.

Carolos Hyde led the Texans with 1,070 rushing yards on the season with six touchdowns and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. He had rushed for 177 yards in two games before only rushing for 27 yards on 17 carries in the last game he saw extensive action.

Buffalo’s defense was a stout one on the season ranking fourth in the league against the pass and 10th against the run.

Buffalo vs Houston NFL betting trends

Bills are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 road games
Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games facing a team with a winning record
Bills are 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine games
Bills have an Under record of 5-1 in their last six games

Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games
Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games facing a team with a winning record
Texans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a favorite
Texans have an Under record of 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite

Bills v Texans Head-to-Head Trends

  • Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five games between these teams
  • In the last five games between these teams the Under record is 4-1

Buffalo v Houston prediction

Bills v Texans prediction and Pick: The Bills will keep this game pretty close, but they will not be able to contain Watson for the whole game. We’re predicting Houston will find a way to crack the Bills’ defense in the second half and at home they will win and also cover the spread.

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