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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots odds & betting picks

Bills @ Pats NFL betting picks

Kickoff at 4:30pm ET (1:30pm PT)

Buffalo Bills
Moneyline odds: +210 at Bovada
Betting line: +6 at -111.11
Record (ATS): 10-4 (9-4-1)

New England Patriots
Moneyline odds: -270 at Bovada
Betting line: -6 at -111.11
Record (ATS): 11-3 (8-6)

Both the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are in the 2019 NFL Playoffs, but they still have a lot to play for in the last few rounds of the regular season.

With a home win the Patriots can clinch the AFC East yet again. They halted their two-game skid in their last game, beating a weak Cincinnati Bengals team 34-13. The Pats have been dealing with SpyGate Part 2, but they still have 11 wins and hold the second seed in the AFC.

The Bills have won four of their last five games and wrapped up a playoff berth with their 17-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. To win the AFC East, they need to win their last two games and have the Patriots lose their last three games.


Turnovers are always key and that is especially the case in this game. The Pats beat the Bills 16-10 in Week 4 where they had fewer yards but forced four turnovers and only committed one. The same thing happened in New England’s win over the Bengals last week, as they had fewer yards but forced five turnovers and did not commit any.

On the season the Patriots are 5-1 at home and the Bills are a solid 6-1 on the road. In the last five games between these teams at New England the Bills are 3-1-1 ATS.

The defense was the main star in Buffalo’s win over Pittsburgh. The Bills held the Steelers to 229 yards and only gave up 51 rushing yards.




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Buffalo QB Josh Allen passed for only 139 yards in the Steelers game with a touchdown and an interception, but his touchdown with just under eight minutes left gave his team the lead for good. John Brown had 99 receiving yards against Pittsburgh and leads the team in receiving yards on the season.

The play of Bills RB Devin Singletary will be vital in this game. He is averaging over five yards per carry on the season and did not play in the early-season loss to the Patriots.

New England rank second in the NFL in pass defense and seventh in run defense. However, they gave up a combined 51 points in their recent losses to the Houston Texans and KC Chiefs before conceding 315 total yards to a Bengals team that ranks 29th in overall offense.


Tom Brady has not looked like the Brady we are used to. He has not eclipsed 168 passing yards in the last two games. While he had two touchdowns in the win over Cincy, he landed only 15/29 passes for 128 yards.

Sony Michel rushed for only eight yards against the Chiefs, but he racked up 89 yards and averaged 4.7 yards per carry in the win over the Bengals. He leads New England’s rushing stats and ranks 26th in the NFL with an average of 53.0 yards per game.

Brady and Michel each did not have big games in the Week 4 win over the Bills where the Patriots only had 224 yards. Can Buffalo and their defense, which ranks third against the pass and 10th against the run, do that again and not turn the ball over multiple times?

Buffalo Bills betting trends

  • Bills are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games
  • Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games
  • Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last six games against a team that has a winning record
  • Bills have an Under record of 20-8 in their last 28 games

New England Patriots betting trends

  • Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record
  • Patriots are 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 home games
  • Patriots have an Under record of 8-3 in their last 11 home games

Bills vs Patriots head-to-head trends

  • Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Bills
  • Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 games between these teams
  • In the last five games between these teams the Under record is 4-1
  • In the last five games between these teams at New England the Under record is 4-1

Bills @ Patriots NFL betting predictions

New England Patriots -6 at -111.11 with Bovada

The Patriots have their issues, on and off the field, and Brady has not looked himself in the last several games. On the other side of the coin, the Bills are an upstart team playing with a lot of confidence and they have a solid defense. Still, this game is in New England, where the Pats can wrap up the AFC East title. While the Bills will not get blown out, the Pats will do enough to cover the spread.


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