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Club-by-club future bet preview of the 2015 AFL season – part 2

There is only two weeks to go before the real stuff begins, so now is the time that punters and lovers of the game need to fine tune their gambling to find the real value in their future bets.

Make no mistake, odds will fluctuate wildly after the first round. One good performance by a player or club and the secret will be out. You will miss out on that juicy dividend that was on offer prior to the commencement of the season.

After looking at the cellar dwellers in the in the opening section of this four-part preview, we move on to the middle tier of this year’s AFL ladder.

Positions 12th through to 9th all should be competing for the final two spots in this year’s final series, with potentially only a small amount of games and percentage points separating the finalists from the finished.

Let’s take a look at where the teams positioned 12th through to 9th may finish, who the favourites are to take out the big awards and even find some value in markets you may not even realise exist.

12th – Collingwood Magpies

Premiership odds: $34 via Sportsbet

Top 4: $7.50 via William Hill

Top 8: $3.25 via Sportsbet

2015 win line: Under 10 games $2.00 via Sportsbet

Coleman medal favourite: Travis Cloke $17 via William Hill

Brownlow medal favourite: Scott Pendlebury $21 via William Hill

Rising star favourite: Jordan DeGoey $21 via Sportsbet (better than $15 offered at Centrebet)

Favoured Pies bet: Collingwood’s midfield has been decimated in the last three years, with only draftees and young talent from other teams brought in to replace the big name losses.

As such, the load will have to be carried by the old firm until the new kids are ready to step up and take responsibility – that’s where a fit and firing Dane Swan will be invaluable.

Swan has had an uninterrupted pre-season and will be keen to atone after a poor 2014 by his lofty standards. He is a ball magnet and a high fantasy points accumulator, which is why the $3 on offer for him to score the most fantasy dreamteam points is hard to pass up.

Our say on Collingwood: The Pies have experienced a staggering fall from grace since 2010-11, with almost half of their premiership team from the start of the decade either retired or playing with other teams in 2015.

Coach Nathan Buckley has worked diligently to impart his brand of hard work on his players, and thus far it has not proven to be completely successful.

The massive overhaul in personnel would negatively affect any team in the league, but the Pies still have star power across the ground to push for a final eight spot.

It looks unlikely that Collingwood will play finals football after a lackluster 2014, and should remain in a similar position this season.

11th – West Coast Eagles

Premiership odds: $31 via Sportsbet (better than $26 offered at Centrebet)

Top 4: $4.50 via William Hill

Top 8: $1.95 via Sportsbet

2015 win line: Under 11.5 games $1.95 via Sportsbet

Coleman medal favourite: Josh Kennedy $9 via William Hill

Brownlow medal favourite: Matt Pridis $34 via William Hill

Rising star favourite: Dom Sheed $21 via Sportsbet

Favoured Eagles bet: West Coast Eagles sharpshooter Josh Kennedy has kicked seven goals over the three pre-season games and looks primed for a huge year in front of the big sticks.

The $9 on offer from William Hill is terrific value given Kennedy’s pedigree and injury-free pre-season, which should bode well for a huge goal tally in 2015.

Our say on the Eagles: The Eagles were desperately unlucky to miss out on a final eight spot last year, and looked most likely before the NAB challenge to jump into the finals.

That was until All-Australian defender Eric McKenzie went down with an ACL injury, and Beau Waters announced his immediate retirement.

The Eagles suddenly look susceptible down back, and will struggle to contain teams with a dominant key forward – which means it will be hard to win games against high-scoring teams.

The Eagles should be right on the cusp of the finals, but will miss out again in 2015.

10th – Adelaide Crows

Premiership odds: $26 via Sportsbet

Top 4: $4.50 via Sportsbet

Top 8: $1.90 via Sportsbet

2015 win line: Under 11.5 games $1.95 via Sportsbet

Coleman medal favourite: Taylor Walker $12 via William Hill

Brownlow medal favourite: Patrick Dangerfield $12 via William Hill

Rising star favourite: Matt Crouch $10 via Sportsbet

Favoured Crows bet: The Crows have been hit with an injury to their most prolific ball-winner in Scott Thompson in the pre-season, and may miss several weeks in the regular season.

Because of this, greater emphasis will come on superstar midfielder Patrick Dangerfield to step up and fill the void. The $12 on offer for Dangerfield to win the Brownlow looks over the odds considering how well he typically polls.

Our say on the Crows: The Crows had an average year last season under former mentor Brendan Sanderson, and the club’s board moved swiftly to sack the three-year coach and bring Port Adelaide assistant coach Phil Walsh into the hot seat.

The Crows looked sharp in the final game of the pre-season, easily accounting for cross-town rivals Port Adelaide and should hit the ground running in round one.

However, there is typically a teething process that goes with new coaches and new systems, and it would not be a surprise to see the Crows miss the eight in the first year of Walsh’s tenure.

9th – Richmond Tigers

Premiership odds: $26 via Sportsbet

Top 4: $5 via Sportsbet

Top 8: $2.10 via Sportsbet

2015 win line: Under 11.5 games $1.90 via Sportsbet

Coleman medal favourite: Jack Riewoldt $8 via William Hill (better than $7 offered by Centrebet)

Brownlow medal favourite: Trent Cotchin $26 via William Hill (better than $21 offered by Centrebet)

Rising star favourite: Liam McBean $34 via William Hill

Favoured Tigers bet: After a stellar 2014, Dustin Martin looks ready to again step to another level this season.

The tattooed Tiger has played almost exclusively through the midfield in the NAB challenge, and slotted in comfortably.

The odds offered of $3.25 by Sportsbet for Martin to poll the most Brownlow votes by a Tiger looks incredibly enticing, given his flashy looks and style of play – Martin is set to have a breakout season.

Our say on the Tigers: The Tigers stormed into last year’s final series after a diabolical start to 2014, but failed to land a shot against a rampant Port Adelaide, getting blown away in the opening quarter.

Whether or not the mental scarring from a beating like that has long-term effects remains to be seen, but the Tigers can ill afford to limp their way through the opening part of the 2015 season.

The Tigers at their very best are more than capable of cracking the top eight, but their inconsistent nature, which has plagued the club for almost two decades, always seems to rear its head at the wrong times.

Expect the Tigers to just fall short of matching last year’s eighth-placed finish.

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