Collingwood v Sydney AFL picks & best odds | Round 1, 2024

Collingwood v Sydney AFL R2 best bets

Magpies v Swans AFL R2 preview

The Collingwood Magpies will unveil their 2023 premiership flag on Friday night as they host the Sydney Swans at the MCG in round one of the new AFL season.

Facing the GWS Giants last weekend, the season got off to a rocky start for Craig McRae’s men as they went down by 32 points. Clearly missing the key defensive help of Nathan Murphy and Jeremy Howe, the Pies were exposed in the air as the Giants key forwards combined for 11 goals.

Back at their beloved MCG in front of a packed crowd on Friday, expect a much-improved performance from the Magpies. Limited changes are expected after getting through their opening match unscathed, with Howe — at the likely expense of youngster Charlie Dean — the only possible inclusion.

The Swans kicked off their season last Thursday night with an impressive 22-point win over Melbourne. It was a tight contest for the first three quarters, but Sydney then blew their opposition away with a four-goal burst at the start of the final term. New recruit Brodie Grundy was a standout in his first game in red and white as he got the better of his former side.

The Swans are expected to remain unchanged as they look to break a five-match losing streak at the MCG. Angus Sheldrick joins Callum Mills, Luke Parker and Taylor Adams on the sidelines after breaking his finger in the VFL last weekend, leaving the Sydney midfield even further stretched.

Collingwood v Sydney AFL R2 betting strategy

Expect the Magpies to come out firing early in this clash as they look to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. The Swans are out to spoil the party, however, and with the addition of a premier ruckman in the off-season, they look a much-improved version of their 2023 side. While Collingwood are rightful favourites with online sportsbooks, this match looks set to be close, so back the Swans with the -10.5 handicap of -10.5 at -111.11.

A standout performer in Collingwood’s loss last weekend, key forward Brody Mihocek led the Magpies with 3.2 in front of goal. After a five-goal bag against the Swans last year, the 31-year-old will be confident of another strong performance. Sydney struggled with Bayley Fritsch last weekend, and as Mihocek is a similar profile, expect him to score two or more goals at -129.87 odds.

With the Swans missing plenty of their big names in midfield, Isaac Heeney spent a majority of the game in the middle last week and formed an excellent partnership with Brodie Grundy. Heeney led the Swans for disposals, clearances and tackles, suggesting he will continue to play on-ball this week. After playing primarily as a forward last year, Heeney now offers great value to collect 25 disposals at +200 with top AFL betting sites.

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