Costa vs Vettori main event betting picks – UFC Fight Night 196

Both Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori will look to bounce back into the winner’s circle when they meet in the main event of UFC Fight Night 196 this Saturday night in Las Vegas. BettingPlanet takes a look at the best bets on offer for this middleweight clash.

Costa vs Vettori UFC Fight Night preview

Marvin Vettori (17-5-1) fought Israel Adesanya to a split-decision loss back on April 14, 2018. He reeled off five straight wins after that loss, including a pair of decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland to earn a UFC Middleweight Championship fight against Adesanya in June. This time around, Adesanya won by unanimous decision.

Paulo Costa (13-1-0) was a perfect 13-0-0 heading into his UFC Middleweight Championship match against Adesanya. Eleven of his 13 career wins, including each of his first four wins in the UFC, came by way of knockout. But after being on the delivering end of 11 knockouts and a submission win through the first 13 fights of his career, Costa was on the receiving end of a knockout loss in his championship fight against Adesanya.

So where do these two middleweights go from here? Both are looking for another shot at the title, and the path to another fight against the reigning champion begins with a win this Saturday.

Costa vs Vettori betting predictions

This is a tough matchup to predict. There is no doubt that Paulo Costa is the significantly heavier hitter in this bout. Israel Adesanya was able to overcome Costa’s power with his speed, outstriking Costa 55-12 before finishing the fight with a knockout. Vettori has only two knockouts in his career, so there is no real threat to Costa in that department, but he has also never been knocked out as all five of his career losses have come by decision.

The key to this fight is going to be Vettori’s ability to take Costa down. Vettori averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes. Costa has historically defended against takedowns well and has only been taken to the mat three times in his six UFC bouts. If Costa can keep this fight off of the ground, it will only be a matter of time before he wears Vettori down with his power. But if Vettori can take control of the fight with some ground work, he will emerge as the winner.

We lean towards Vettori getting the job done here, but fading Costa’s power for five rounds is going to be tough. There’s merit to both Vettori by decision and Costa by knockout. We’re getting a good enough price in this one to take a stab on Costa.