Dern vs Yan UFC Fight Night betting picks – Saturday, October 1

This Saturday’s UFC Fight Night bill is topped by an enthralling women’s strawweight bout between the fifth-ranked Mackenzie Dern (12-2-0) and the sixth-ranked Yan Xiaonan (15-3-0). This weight division is wide open given the May 2022 defeat of dominant champ Rose Namajunas, and both fighters will be looking to advance their case for a title shot with an impressive performance.

Dern is a tough, hard-working BJJ Black Belt with a long list of submission victims in her wake. Six of her 12 UFC victories have ended with an opponent tapping out. That said, Dern has vastly improved her striking in recent months and increasingly looks a well-rounded fighter ready to challenge the biggest names in her division. She boasts recent wins over ranked fighters in Tecia Torres and Nina Nunes.

Dern’s early MMA career was hindered by weight issues, but she now appears to have a solid team around her – including a nutritionist – and has come in under the limit for her last several appearances. Her weakness can be a lack of striking volume on the feet leading to close decision losses, which is understandable given her world-class prowess on the mat. If she can add a little more aggression in the stand-up department, there’s no reason Dern cannot rise to the top of the strawweight rankings. A big win here over a similarly ranked opponent will certainly advance her title aspirations.

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Yan is part of a wave of MMA talent that has emerged from China in recent years as the sport becomes truly international. A pioneer who has been training martial arts since the age of 13, Yan was the first Chinese woman to be signed by the UFC, opening the door for future stars such as Zhang Weili. Yan is primarily schooled in Sanda – a Chinese variation of kickboxing. She scored numerous knockouts in her early career but has yet to produce a stoppage across eight UFC appearances.

Yan has dropped her last two bouts – a decision loss to Marina Rodriguez and a TKO at the hands of current champ Carla Esparza – so will be looking to get back on track here. She is a gritty volume striker who walks forward and seeks to own the centre of the octagon. She was soundly beaten on the ground by Esparza and will be keen to keep this bout in the upright position. Yan can expect plenty of takedown attempts from the submission specialist opposite and her chances will depend on her ability to evade Dern’s superior ground game.

Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan betting prediction

We are tipping Dern to emerge with the win based on her improved striking efforts of late. Yan might have a slight advantage on the feet, but Dern will have a bigger edge on the mat. This should be enough to see her emerge victorious. If Dern is to scale the strawweight division, she will need to excel in all areas of combat, so this fight should prove an excellent opportunity to display her full range of talent.

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