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EPL Matchweek 4 betting tips & value picks – August 27, 2022

Premier League MW4 betting picks

We are officially three games into the Premier League season and Arsenal sit alone at the top of the table — just like we all expected. This season has been filled with all sorts of twists and turns, and while it’s still early, there is genuine reason to panic for some teams. There are seven games on the slate this Saturday, and these are our best bets for those fixtures.


Southampton vs Manchester United

Are Man United back, or are we falling into a trap? After a miserable start where they lost their first two games, the Red Devils were able to defeat Liverpool in Matchweek 3. In that game, United gaffer Erik ten Hag didn’t start Harry Maguire and Cristiano Ronaldo, and the result was a much stronger all-round performance than their first two matches. United ran circles around the Liverpool defense at times, and while they didn’t solve all of their problems, they definitely looked like a different team. We may be prematurely buying into United, but if they play like they did against Liverpool, it’s going to be a long game for Southampton.

Southampton have been a middling Premier League team for a while. This year, it looks like more of the same as Southampton have five points from their first three games. If United play to their potential, they are the sort of team that will give Southampton trouble, even if the Saints are at home. Southampton’s biggest strength is their midfield, and if United’s midfield can have a repeat performance, the Red Devils should be able to neutralize Southampton’s strength. It may be risky considering United’s inconsistency, but they should easily handle Southampton in this game.

Manchester United to win

-129.87
@
Bovada

Arsenal vs Fulham

Once again, we are betting on Gabriel Jesus to score. He didn’t score for Arsenal last week against Bournemouth, but he was consistently getting good chances and had a goal called back due to a marginal offside call. When watching Arsenal, it’s clear their attacking gameplan centers around Jesus. The Gunners are clearly improved this season, and while it may be a bit premature to call them a title challenger, guys like Jesus are making a big impact. Until his odds get significantly shorter, we are going to keep betting on Jesus to score.

Gabriel Jesus anytime goalscorer

-109.89
@
Bovada

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United

These two teams have been among the biggest surprises of the season so far. Both have two wins and a draw from their three games and are sitting towards the top of the table. Brighton have displayed a great defensive acumen to this point, conceding only one goal in this Premier League season. They are playing a very structured style of soccer and have impressed pundits with their ability to possess the ball. Because of that, they match up very evenly with a streaking Leeds United team.

Leeds are among the most improved teams in the Premier League so far. They came into this season as a relegation contender but they have played like a top-four team to this point. Behind American coach Jesse Marsch, Leeds shocked the Premier League with their 3-0 win against Chelsea last weekend. The Whites have a high-energy style where they are consistently pressing their opponents; that will contrast against Brighton’s slower pace and should create a cagey match. When that happens, it can be a testy affair where neither team wants to risk anything. As such, the draw is an appealing option.

Draw

+280
@
Bovada

Chelsea vs Leicester City

Chelsea have been very inconsistent to this point, but it’s clear their most consistent offensive option is Raheem Sterling. The whole Chelsea team struggled to create offensively against Leeds and they ended up goalless. Against Leicester, they should look much better on the attacking end as the Foxes have given up the most goals in the league up to this point. Leicester look hapless defensively, and while Chelsea haven’t looked good offensively, Leicester should still struggle to stop them. Sterling has had consistent opportunities in each of Chelsea’s games and he should end up on the score sheet this game. It’s risky to count on Chelsea’s attack, but this game should feature a plethora of goalscoring chances and Sterling should be the main benefactor.

Raheem Sterling anytime goalscorer

+175
@
Bovada

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