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EPL Matchweek 5 betting picks & top value bets – August 30, 2022

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Premier League fans are in for a treat this week as we get our first slate of midweek games. After an exciting weekend that featured all the ‘top six’ clubs winning their games, the action resumes on Tuesday with four matches scheduled. Here are our best bets for those fixtures, with odds courtesy of Bovada.

Southampton vs Chelsea

In this fixture between two defensively sound teams, the under on the total goals line is very appealing. Southampton have yet to impress in this Premier League season as they only have one win through their first four games. The Saints have a strong midfield that keeps them in games, but their attack has let them down. Aside from Scottish striker Che Adams, Southampton have a dearth of attacking options and it is hard for them to create opportunities. Chelsea should have no problem slowing down Adams, and there is a good chance they get their second clean sheet of the season.

Chelsea have been fairly inconsistent thus far. After a 3-0 loss to an inferior Leeds United team, the Blues bounced back with a 2-1 win against Leicester City where they were a man down for most of the second half. Outside of Raheem Sterling, Chelsea also have struggled to find attacking options and it has been hard for them to get shots on goal. They have a very strong defense and new signing Kalidou Koulibaly looks like one of the best center-backs in the Premier League. Also, both of these teams played on Saturday, so they will be on less rest than normal. In a matchup between two tired, defense-focused teams, the under is the play.

Under 2.75 total goals


Crystal Palace vs Brentford

These teams are very evenly matched and it should be a testy fixture. Brentford currently have five points through their first four games and sit in 10th place. Aside from their 4-0 win against Manchester United, the Bees haven’t been super impressive, but this is a great spot for them. Crystal Palace are flawed defensively, and while Brentford aren’t great going forward, they should be able to create a lot of chances in this match. Guys like Ivan Toney and Mikkel Damsgaard have shown their talent in recent fixtures and they will be a lot for Palace’s defense. Brentford hold the value in this matchup.

Palace will enter this game off a demoralizing loss to Manchester City. In that fixture, Palace jumped out to a shock 2-0 lead but they were slowly exposed throughout the rest of the game. They ended up losing 4-2 and they barely touched the ball in the second half. That should have taken a lot out of their defense, and that will work in Brentford’s favor. Palace already had an iffy defense and now will have a quick turnaround for this game. We expect Brentford to get a result in this game, even if they are away.

Brentford +0.25


Leeds United vs Everton

Everton were pegged as a relegation contender before this season and it looks like that could be their fate. The Toffees are in 18th place with two points through four games and it’s going to be tough for them to bounce back. Simply, Everton lack talent right now and need an improbable turnaround to change their fortunes. Although they have drawn in their last two games, Everton haven’t played particularly well and Leeds will be a tougher task than those fixtures.

Although Leeds lost last weekend, they still have put together an impressive season. They currently have seven points through four games and sit in fifth place. While it’s unlikely they finish that high up the table, Leeds were a relegation candidate before this season and this start to the year has been a resounding success. Their American talent, namely Brendan Aaronson and Tyler Adams, have given this team a strong spine, and that should allow Leeds to control this game. The Peacocks will be at home, where they have yet to drop a point this season. Everton are being drastically overvalued here by most soccer betting sites, so Leeds to win at +115 is a great bet.

Leeds United to win


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