EPL Sunday MW10 betting picks & value plays – October 16, 2022

Matchweek 10 of the 2022-23 English Premier League season continues this Sunday with another five games on the schedule. While Friday and Saturday’s slate is interesting, Sunday features the game of the weekend as Liverpool host Manchester City. We have picks for that game and more, with odds courtesy of Bovada.

Manchester United vs Newcastle United

After a sloppy start to the season where Manchester United had two heavy losses, they have been a different team. The Red Devils have won five of their six games since that tumultuous start and they’ve found some tactics that are working. United have leaned more on their youth and, in turn, guys like Jadon Sancho and Antony have been playing great. They have been true difference-makers on the wings and they give this United attack an edge it hasn’t had in recent seasons. In United’s last two Premier League home matches, they have defeated Arsenal and Liverpool. Simply put, United have been great at Old Trafford and that should make the difference in this contest.

Newcastle have been a strong team this season but this is a tough spot for them. They have ridden a strong attacking gameplan into sixth place, and guys like Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin have been great for the Magpies. That being said, we think United have enough defensive steel to slow them down. Aside from a game at Manchester City, this United defense hasn’t conceded more than one goal in a Premier League game since the second game of the season. We expect United to slow down Newcastle and use their counterattacking prowess to build a lead at their home stadium. As of right now, United to win at -105 is a great bet.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

After an awful start to the season, Aston Villa have been playing better of late. They have garnered five points from their last three Premier League matches, yet they are still in 16th place with nine points through as many games. Although they have strung a few results together, Villa are still a relegation candidate and they will be overmatched in this fixture. Chelsea’s strength is their defense, and Villa do not possess enough quality in their attack to break them down. Villa only have seven goals through their nine Premier League games and they do not create enough chances to make them a threat.

Chelsea have been playing great as well. Since the appointment of Graham Potter, the Blues have rattled off four wins across all competitions. In three of those four games, they have kept a clean sheet. We expect that defense to hold up in this contest, and against Villa, creating offense shouldn’t be that hard. Guys like Christian Pulisic and Kai Havertz have been great for Chelsea recently and making them a dangerous attacking side. Chelsea should have an easy time against Villa, and even though they are away, the -125 price is not short enough to scare us away.

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Liverpool are clear home underdogs for the first time in a while, and even though they are +300 with the betting sites to win a game at Anfield, we are staying away from them. The Reds have been the story of this Premier League season, battling their way to 10th in the table. Defensively, they cannot be trusted. Big-name players like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk have failed to find any sort of form so far this season, to the point where they have become liabilities. This team has given up 12 goals in eight games and let inferior sides look good playing them.

Meanwhile, Manchester City look unbeatable. This team is as good as advertised and we all should have seen it coming when they just dropped Erling Haaland into an already elite lineup. Through nine games, City have a goal differential of 24; the next highest in the Premier League is 13. There is not a team in the world that can slow down this City attack, and Liverpool are no exception – especially this year. Manchester City may be away, but that hasn’t mattered this season. This team is too dominant. While some may be tempted by Liverpool’s long odds, their defensive woes make it an easy choice to back the visitors.

Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer

Erling Haaland has 15 goals in nine EPL games. He is one of the best finishers in the world and he has the best passers in the world feeding him the ball. Anytime Haaland’s goalscorer odds are better than -200, he is an auto-bet. Teams have no answer for him and Liverpool will be no different. Take Haaland to score and don’t look back.

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