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First try & man of the match bets for State of Origin Game 3

State of Origin Game 3 – 8:20pm AEST on Wednesday, July 13, 2016 at ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Head-to-head odds
Queensland: $1.92
New South Wales: $1.92

Queensland are 2-0 up in the State of Origin series which makes Game 3 a dead-rubber, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t been a hotly contested betting affair.

The Maroons opened up as the $1.82 favourites at after their 26-16 win at Suncorp Stadium last month, but steady money has come for the Blues in a game they must win for their fans.

New South Wales have played well throughout the series, but have lacked the finishing touch. Playing in front of their home crowd this Wednesday will certainly help, which is why their opening price of $2 has firmed into equal favouritism at $1.92.

So what’s at stake for the Blues? Pride and momentum spring to mind. Getting swept 3-0 isn’t going to give the players any confidence heading into the 2017 series and we dare say the coaching staff might get a complete overhaul.

The newer players such as Tyson Frizell, Jack Bird and James Tedesco all bring the excitement factor, but it’s too little, too late for the New South Wales selectors who continued to pick the same players Queensland had been dominating over the past 10 years.

Punters looking to bet on Queensland will be concerned about their desire to win this game, but they may well lift for Corey Parker’s last State of Origin game.

Besides, when do Queensland ever want to give away a win to the Blues?

It all goes down this Wednesday and currently has over 110 betting options available, including the always-popular first tryscorer market.

Queensland vs. New South Wales first tryscorer betting is offering a $50 cash back special if your player doesn’t score first, but scores at any time throughout the game.

That’s incredible value and it adds to the excitement of what will already be a viewing spectacle.

While scoring tries hasn’t been NSW’s forte throughout the series so far, we could see the floodgates open on Wednesday. Here’s how the Blues’ first tryscorer prospects line up at Sportsbet:

New South Wales first tryscorer market

James Tedesco – $10
Josh Mansour – $10
Blake Ferguson – $10
Michael Jennings – $13
Josh Dugan – $15
Jack Bird – $21
James Maloney – $21
Matthew Moylan – $26
Tyson Frizell – $26
Wade Graham – $26
Josh Jackson – $34
Robbie Farah – $41
David Klemmer – $51
Andrew Fafita – $51
Aaron Woods – $61
James Tamou – $61
Paul Gallen – $67

James Tedesco finally gets an overdue call-up into the New South Wales Blues team. The Wests Tigers fullback is one of the most exciting players in the NRL and how the likes of Josh Dugan and Matthew Moylan consistently got picked in front of him is beyond us.

His ability to break through tackles is his best attribute, which is good reason as to why he’s the equal $10 favourite in the Blues ranks to score first try.

Another player who has been impressing everyone this season is Tyson Frizell. He is a forward who has the speed of an outside back and he even ran down Justin O’Neill in Game 2 at Suncorp Stadium.

Frizell looks a great chance to score first at $26, but $5 to score anytime at Sportsbet is the best bet for Blues backers.

Queensland first tryscorer betting

Corey Oates – $9
Dane Gagai – $10
Greg Inglis – $13
Darius Boyd – $15
Justin O’Neill – $19
Matt Gillett – $21
Aidan Guerra – $26
Gavin Cooper – $26
Johnathan Thurston – $26
Cooper Cronk – $26
Sam Thaiday – $29
Corey Parker – $51
Cameron Smith – $67
Josh McGuire – $67
Matthew Scott – $71
Nate Myles – $81
Jacob Lillyman – $81

The current first try favourite is Corey Oates and that’s understandable. The Maroons winger is a beast down the sideline and he’s in incredible scoring form, but we think there could be value elsewhere in this market.

Aidan Guerra is an unusual pick, we agree, but he’s due for a big game and we think the first try could come close to the line. The conditions might be a touch wet underfoot, which will suit the bigger forwards, and Guerra will be seeking a try under the posts. At worst, he’s $7.50 at to score at anytime, which is great value.

Our other pick is Corey Parker, who is playing his final Origin. We don’t like him to score first, but in a dead-rubber match we wouldn’t be surprised if the Maroons set him up with the final scoring play. He’s currently $41 to score the last try of the game and that’s a prop bet worth investing in.

State of Origin Game 3 Man of the Match betting

Despite Queensland’s dominance, we see NSW taking this game and, therefore, a man in blue picking up the man of the match award.

There are a handful of potential winning candidates and none more so than the inspirational captain, Paul Gallen. “G-Train”, as former player Beau Ryan would like to say, has been doing his job well throughout the series and is ever a popular vote among the MOTM selectors.

Gallen is currently on the second line of betting at $9 with Sportsbet, which is a fair price. If New South Wales are to win, expect a huge performance from their leader.

Another Blues player who could shine is debutant James Tedesco. He’ll likely have to score a try to get the man of the match award, but we think he can and he could be the Blues’ answer for what Billy Slater did throughout the 2000s. Tedesco is well-fancied at $9.

We’ve made mention of Tyson Frizell and with good reason. The Blues player has had a season to remember so far and the $17 on offer for this option is incredible value. He might come off the bench for impact, but he’ll give 100 percent effort and that’s all punters can hope for.

He’s a player for the future and must be considered for your man of the match picks, along with the likes of Corey Parker ($11) and Aaron Woods ($26).

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