French Open Day 5 best bets & value picks – May 26, 2022

Frances Tiafoe is listed as the underdog in his French Open match against David Goffin this Thursday despite being the higher seed in the tournament. Here’s our prediction in that match and a pair of best bets in Hugo Gaston vs Pedro Chachin and Mackenzie McDonald vs Nikoloz Basilashvili on Day 5 of the 2022 French Open.

David Goffin (-137) vs Frances Tiafoe (+117)

There are plenty of reasons to like David Goffin in this matchup. Goffin improved to 6-2 in his last eight matches on clay this season with his 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. He has had a far better career on clay than Frances Tiafoe has to this point, boasting an 86-55 career record on clay compared to Tiafoe’s career losing record of 20-29 on the surface. And when it comes to head-to-head play between these two players, Goffin holds the 3-1 advantage.

All of these factors make Goffin our play in this Day 5 matchup. Tiafoe’s raw talent makes him impossible to dismiss as a threat completely, but his recent form isn’t particularly impressive and his 7-5, 7-5, 7-6 victory over Benjamin Bonzi in the first round was more strenuous than it aught to have been. We’ll take the favorite to get the job done.

Hugo Gaston (-116) vs Pedro Chachin (-104)

This is one of the more interesting matchups on the board on Thursday. Pedro Cachin has been playing well thus far in the French Open after earning a spot through qualifiers, and he picked up a solid 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 win in the first round over Norbert Gombos. Hugo Gaston is a big fan favorite due to his play style and France being his home country.

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The home crowd willed Gaston to a five-set win over Alex de Minaur in the first round and they’ll be heavily in his favor again here. This matchup is as close as the betting odds indicate it is, so we’ll actually shy away from picking a winner and instead take the OVER 37.5 games in a match that feels very likely to need all five sets to decide.

Mackenzie McDonald (+167) vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (-192)

Nikoloz Basilashvili has been in pretty poor form this season, and he just narrowly escaped the first round with a 3-6, 2-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 win over Maxime Cressy. Mackenzie McDonald is a big underdog here because his recent form has been even worse than Basilashvili’s, though he did look better in the first round of the French Open with a 1-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6 victory against Franco Agamenone.

McDonald defeated Basilashvili 6-3, 6-2 when these two last met in February at ATP Rotterdam, and the switch to a clay surface doesn’t necessarily benefit Basilashvili. Given that neither player is in particularly good form and that McDonald looked sharp in a win over Basilashvili earlier a few months ago, this looks like a pretty good spot to make a value play on the underdog.

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