Gaethje vs Chandler UFC 268 betting picks – November 6, 2021

Justin Gaethje returns to the octagon after a year out of action to take on Michael Chandler this Saturday night in UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. This lightweight match will serve as the lead-in to the two championship bouts of Rose Namajunas vs Zhang Weili and Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington.

Gaethje vs Chandler form & fight analysis

Justin Gaethje (22-3-0) surged to the top of the lightweight division with four straight knockout wins over James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone and Tony Ferguson. The win over Ferguson landed Gaethje the interim UFC Lightweight Championship and the chance to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov for the title at UFC 254. Nurmagomedov won that fight and retired from the sport shortly afterwards. A win in this matchup against Chandler would likely put Gaethje right back into the title picture in the lightweight division.

Michael Chandler (22-6-0) also fought his way into a title shot with three straight knockout wins over Sidney Outlaw, Benson Henderson and Dan Hooker. Chandler faced Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship at UFC 262 in May and was knocked out in the second round. Chandler spent the majority of his professional career in Bellator (including three stints as the Bellator Lightweight World Champion) and will be making just his third appearance in a UFC bout this Saturday.

Gaethje vs Chandler betting predictions

This one should be a whole lot of fun. Only two of Justin Gaethje’s 25 career fights have gone to the cards and 19 of his 22 wins have come by way of knockout. Each of Michael Chandler’s last five fights have ended in a knockout with him on the giving end of three and on the receiving end of two. These two heavy hitters will trade plenty of haymakers in the middle of the octagon and should both be comfortable looking for a big-time knockout.

The key to this fight will be Gaethje’s devastating calf kick going up against Chandler’s solid takedown offense. If Chandler is able to close the gap and take Gaethje to the mat, he could gain the advantage in the ground and pound. But to do so, he’ll need to withstand Gaethje’s calf kicks that have been extremely effective in keeping opponents at bay.

At this price point, you’d be well within reason to take a shot on Chandler. But with more experience at the UFC level, a higher knockout rate and a rock-solid chin, we expect Gaethje to find a way to get the job done with a statement knockout to earn himself another title shot sooner rather than later.