Grasso v Araujo UFC Fight Night preview & best bets – October 15

With the stacked UFC 280 card only days away, MMA fans can warm up with a Fight Night featuring a headliner that will help shape the women’s flyweight division.

Alexa Grasso (14-3-0) is a tough Mexican mixed martial artist currently riding the crest of a three-fight win streak. Grasso entered the UFC roster via Invicta FC, where she built an unbeaten four-fight winning run. She has since gone 6-3 at the UFC. A 2020 change in weight class from strawweight to flyweight has, however, rejuvenated her career, and her results since making the switch have been impressive. She appears healthier and much better suited at 125 pounds.

Grasso last saw action when she choked out Joanne Wood in a first-round blitz. Prior to that Grasso secured successive decision victories over Maycee Barber and Ji Yeon Kim. These wins propelled Grasso up the flyweight rankings and she now sits fifth, within striking distance of a title shot.

All of Grasso’s UFC losses have been recorded at strawweight, where she constantly battled with the scales, which must be considered when analysing her career. In 2019 she dropped a close decision result to current strawweight champ Carla Esparza. In 2018 she was submitted by Tatiana Suarez, and in 2017 she suffered a decision loss to Felice Herring. Her return to winning form highlights the importance of fighters finding their natural weight class to avoid long and damaging hours sweating off the pounds.

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Viviane Araújo (11-3-0) is a gritty Brazilian mixed martial artist who boasts a BJJ black belt and is currently ranked sixth in the flyweight division. Araújo’s early career wins were all achieved via submission, but her latest six outings have been decided by the judges. Leaving close fights to the discretion of the judges is always fraught with peril.

Araújo last graced the octagon in May 2022, when she secured a unanimous decision against Andrea Lee. Prior to that she lost to former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian but preceded that with wins over Roxanne Modafferi and Montana De La Rosa. She also boasts a strong win over Alexis Davis, another competent opponent.

It will be interesting to see if either fighter wants to take this one to the mat. Both are skilled BJJ practitioners, with Araújo possibly holding a small edge in that department. Araújo has a minor two-inch reach advantage, but these fighters are otherwise perfectly matched. While Grasso is the younger fighter, with greater likelihood of one day fighting for the title, this promises to be a well-balanced matchup.

After going back and forth we are tipping the upset here – Viviane Araújo to win at +170 with Bovada. The fighters are so evenly matched that we can’t resist the big odds.

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