Krylov v Spann UFC predictions & best bets – February 25, 2023

UFC Fight Night from the Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday matches Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann, a pair of light heavyweights with title aspirations. The division’s newly crowned king, Jamahal Hill, has a pack of hungry contenders chasing his belt, and this contest may provide a genuine threat to his early reign.

Nikita Krylov (29-9-0) has fought the toughest competition in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. Although his recent results look somewhat patchy with four wins and four losses since 2018, the losses have occurred against former champs Jan Blachowicz and Glovier Teixeira, top contender Magomed Ankalaev, and dangerous submission artist Paul Craig. Krylov’s wins during this period were over Volkan Oezdemir, Alexander Gustafssen, Johnny Walker, and Ovince Saint Preux. This has been no easy path.

Krylov has an excellent ground game, with 15 wins as a professional MMA fighter. On the flipside, he can push a little too hard for wins via this method on occasion – as seen in his loss to Craig, who snatched a triangle choke during a back-and-forth exchange on the mat. Krylov is a tough and gritty fighter who pushes a solid pace, and he might well have an endurance advantage here.

READ: Best UFC betting sites in 2023

Ryan Spann (21-7-0) comes into this bout following the most impressive performance of his career when he starched Dominic Reyes in the opening seconds of their November 2022 matchup. Spann brings a much more consistent recent record into this contest with 13 wins and two losses from his last 15 trips to the cage. The losses were to Johnny Walker and Anthony Smith, and the wins include names such as Ion Cutelaba, Sam Alvey, and Devin Clark – so fighters of similar calibre to those Krylov has met.

The Memphis native also loves to submit his opponents, with 16 of his 21 professional wins coming via that method. We could see some very high-level grappling if either fighter scores a takedown. Spann appears to have an edge in the striking department and will enjoy a two-inch height and reach advantage. He might be tempted to only take Krylov down if the Ukrainian is looking wobbly on the feet.

Following Spann’s latest win over Reyes, he sensationally claimed that it was the first time he had properly trained for a fight. If this is true, who knows what level of performance a fully focused Spann can produce? He may have been relying on his natural athleticism to date, as many gifted fighters are prone to do.

We are somewhat confused by the odds that most betting sites are offering for this contest. It looks like a coin flip, and we are leaning in Spann’s direction, so we are obliged to take the generous price on offer. Spann should be riding high after his most recent effort, and if his training regime has improved, he looks like a viable title contender at light heavyweight.

It might be wise to hold off betting on this contest until the fighters have successfully weighed in. Spann has struggled on the scales and his ability to make weight will be telling of his lead-up work volume. If he safely makes the 205-pound limit, we are confident of his chances to emerge victorious over the hardy Krylov.

More sports betting picks