La Liga 2021/22 Matchweek 38 best bets, value picks & top odds

Real Madrid hosts Real Betis this Friday in a matchup between two top-five teams in the final week of the La Liga season. Here’s our top pick in that matchup as well as plays in Sunday’s Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid and Barcelona vs Villarreal matches in La Liga Matchweek 38.

Real Madrid vs Real Betis

Real Madrid (26-7-4) has been a tough club to handicap since locking up the La Liga championship with a 4-0 win over Espanyol at the end of April. Real is 1-1-1 since then with a 1-0 loss to Atletico Madrid, a 6-0 win over Levante and a 1-1 draw on the road against Cadiz. Real Betis (19-7-11), meanwhile, has back-to-back shutout wins over Valencia and Grenada since going 0-2-2 over its previous four matches.

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We’re going to take a stab on the UNDER 3.25 goals in this one. This is a bit risky considering Real Madrid’s recent 4-0 and 6-0 blowout wins at home. But Real Betis has recorded five clean sheets in its last six matches and has allowed only two total goals over that stretch. And the last game between these two clubs was a low-scoring 1-0 Real Madrid win back in August, so a game with three or fewer goals seems quite likely.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid (20-8-9) played to a 1-1 draw at home against Sevilla on Sunday. Atletico enters its final match of the 2021-22 season with a 9-2-2 record over its last 14 matches. Real Sociedad (17-11-9) has snapped out of a 0-2-2 winless streak with back-to-back wins at home over Cadiz and on the road over Villarreal. Sociedad is 6-2-1 in its last nine home games.

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This is the most evenly-matched game on the board, with Real Sociedad going off as a very slight favorite of +170 over Atletico Madrid (+175) and the draw (+230). Given that Atletico has lost two of its last three matches on the road and that Sociedad has been playing so well at home, we’ll go with the home club in this one, though we’ll be it as a pick’em on the two-way line to avoid a loss on the fairly likely occurrence this match ends in a draw.

Barcelona vs Villarreal

Barcelona (21-10-6) had a three-match winning streak snapped with a 0-0 draw on the road against Getafe on Sunday. The club has already locked up second place on the La Liga table and will enter this season finale with an 11-2-1 record over its last 14 matches. Villarreal (15-11-11) suffered a 2-1 loss at home to Real Sociedad over the weekend. Prior to their current 4-2-5 run, Villarreal had gone on an impressive 9-2-2 run in its previous 14 games.

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Villarreal has more to play for in this match as it is hoping to lock up the seventh-place spot in the La Liga standings. But it’s hard to go against Barcelona here; the club has been playing an elite level since November, and Villarreal is just 2-0-4 in its last six games away from home. We’ll happily take Barcelona one last time in the 2021-22 season getting slightly better than even-money odds to do so.

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