Lewis v Spivac UFC Fight Night betting picks – February 4, 2023

UFC Fight Night from the Apex returns with a classic heavyweight clash between a lighter and fitter Derrick Lewis and a surging Serghei Spivac. Lewis is desperate for a win after enduring successive losses, while Spivac is on the cusp of securing a top-10 ranking in the heavyweight division. With so much on the line, we can expect the big men to deliver a classic, hard-hitting battle of skill and experience.

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Lewis v Spivac main event preview

Derrick Lewis (26-10-0) is on a health kick. The heavyweight has posted recent photos showing he has dropped a huge amount of weight leading up to this clash. The Texan has traditionally just crept under the heavyweight limit of 265 pounds, so this represents a major shift in focus. He has relied on his prodigious power to knock out his opponents to date. This change of strategy is required given Lewis has been beaten badly in his last two trips to the octagon — a brutal second-round knockout by Tai Tuivasa and a first-round beatdown by Sergei Pavlovich.

Whether a lighter and fitter Lewis will be more effective remains to be seen, but whenever a fighter suffers successive early knockouts, we must be cautious about the condition of their chin. Once a combat athlete’s chin is gone, it can never be regained, regardless of changes to training camps, new approaches to nutrition, or spiritual awakenings. For a historical example, look at the decline of Chuck Liddell. Every aspect of Lewis’ game may be improved from ring movement, footwork, and endurance, but he must still survive the heavy punches that come his way.

Lewis also appears to have a grappling disadvantage in this match-up and will be keen to draw Spivac into a stand-up battle. The Texan can inflict damage from top position but lacks the takedown guile of the Russian. He would be wise to take some heat off his strikes and look to land punches in bunches rather than launch wild haymakers that can be used against him in the grappling game.

Serghei Spivac (15-3-0) enters this fight on a strong recent wave of success having won five of his last six contests. A win here would see him join the top division’s top 10. Spivac’s recent loss was to the highly regarded Tom Aspinall, so there is no shame there, and his list of victims includes Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Alexey Oleynik. He possesses a very heavy ground game and might hunt for a takedown should Lewis overcommit to his punches and lose balance.

Spivac is quite nimble for a big man and contains dimensions to his game. He can win via ground and pound, submission, and on points with solid output that impresses the judges. Many heavyweights lack this versatility and compete as though knockout is the only path to victory. The Russian has only been knocked out twice across his professional career, in 2019 and 2021. He has absorbed far less damage than Lewis and should be more able to ride the punches and return fire.

Lewis v Spivac predictions & top tip

Despite the disparity in the odds posted on most betting sites, these fighters appear very evenly matched. With Lewis having worked hard on improving his fitness, this negates one of Spivac’s big advantages. A heavy, slow-footed Lewis might have been easy work for the lighter, more agile Spivac. To split this pair, we must return to the initial point of analysis; Lewis has been flattened in his last two fights, while Spivac is on an upward winning spiral. On that note, we are tipping Spivac to emerge with his arm raised following a classic heavyweight encounter between big men who know how to fight.

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