Luque v dos Anjos UFC betting picks – August 12, 2023

A pair of elite Brazilian welterweights clash at UFC Fight Night this weekend when Vicente Luque tackles Rafael dos Anjos at UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Luque is on the comeback trail after a year away from the sport, while dos Anjos is a constant threat who continues to defy age and shows no sign of slowing down.

Vicente Luque v Rafael dos Anjos fight preview

Vicente Luque vs Rafael dos Anjos

Vicente Luque (21-9-1) dropped his past two UFC contests and enters this fight in desperate need of a win. After losing via decision to Belal Muhammad in April, he was knocked out by Geoff Neal in August 2022 – the first KO loss of his long career. He has taken a year away from the sport to recapture the form that saw him finish Michael Chiesa, Tyron Woodley, Randy Brown, and Nico Price on a winning streak that looked certain to propel him towards a title shot at 170 pounds.

At his best, Luque combines knockout power with a phenomenal ground game, and his illustrious record contains 11 KO wins and eight via submission. He will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage, and this appears to be a competitive matchup for his return to UFC action. He has only been in one five-round fight, which resulted in the loss to Muhammad, so Luque might be vulnerable if this fight enters the latter stages.

Rafael dos Anjos (32-14-0) is a born warrior who made his UFC debut in 2008. He has since taken on all-comers at multiple weight classes, won and defended the lightweight belt, and looks a certain Hall of Fame addition when he hangs up the gloves. Dos Anjos is 4-1 since 2020, with the loss coming to the dangerous striker Rafael Fiziev, and at 38 years of age, no significant decline can be detected.

Dos Anjos is a volume fighter who sets a cracking pace and forces opponents to match it. He has only five knockouts on his lengthy record, but his finishes have often come on the ground after he has broken an opponent’s spirit. He will be looking to avoid the heavy early attacks of Luque and rely on his legendary stamina to get him over the line.

Vicente Luque v Rafael dos Anjos betting predictions

This fight appears to have two potential outcomes: either Luque finishes dos Anjos within the opening rounds, or the veteran grinds out another decision victory. Dos Anjos can be knocked out, but Luque will need to land crisp and accurate strikes to secure the finish. He will need to shed any ring rust immediately and produce his best shots within the first 10 minutes.

It is always risky to support a fighter coming off a long break, but we are leaning in Luque’s direction and hope he can reclaim the form he displayed before the 2022 setbacks. This fight is very evenly matched, as the odds reflect, and should deliver a compelling main event.

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